Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gent52.8%fair odds 1.89
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.98
Standard Liege22.0%fair odds 4.54
Expected goals1.71 – 1.02total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gent ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gent goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.34
- 1–010.5%9.50
- 2–19.7%10.29
- 2–09.5%10.52
- 0–07.1%14.04
- 0–16.1%16.50
- 1–25.8%17.18
- 3–15.5%18.06
- 3–05.4%18.47
- 2–25.0%20.12
Winning margin
12.9%
Gent by 3+
fair 7.75
16.4%
Gent by 2
fair 6.10
23.5%
Gent by 1
fair 4.25
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.98
13.8%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 7.22
5.9%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 17.01
2.3%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 43.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Gent goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Standard Liege goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 52.8% | 52.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 22.0% | 22.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 52.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 53.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.71 | 1.71 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.02 | 1.05 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gent win52.8%1.89
- Draw25.2%3.98
- Standard Liege win22.0%4.54
- Double chance Gent or draw78.0%1.28
- Double chance Gent or Standard Liege74.8%1.34
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw47.2%2.12
- Draw no bet Gent70.6%1.42
- Draw no bet Standard Liege29.4%3.40
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.42
- Over 4.514.2%7.06
- Under 1.523.7%4.22
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Gent win and yes24.0%4.17
- Draw and yes18.0%5.54
- Standard Liege win and yes11.0%9.09
Team goals
- Gent over 0.581.9%1.22
- Gent over 1.550.9%1.96
- Gent over 2.524.5%4.08
- Standard Liege over 0.564.0%1.56
- Standard Liege over 1.527.3%3.67
- Standard Liege over 2.58.5%11.83
- Gent clean sheet36.0%2.78
- Standard Liege clean sheet18.1%5.52
- Gent win to nil28.8%3.47
- Standard Liege win to nil11.0%9.09
Handicap
- Gent −1.529.3%3.41
- Gent −2.512.9%7.75
- Standard Liege +1.570.7%1.41
- Standard Liege +2.587.1%1.15
- Standard Liege −1.58.2%12.26
- Gent +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored91
Favourite won44.0%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.619
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right51.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.4% | 23.5% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 45.1% | 34.0% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 55.5% | 72.2% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.7% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 53 of 91 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6286 | 0.6271 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.9% | 38.3% |
| Favourite won | 41.5% | 43.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 53 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 OH Leuven56·25·20
- ✗KVC Westerlo 1–1 Dender49·26·25
- ✗Charleroi 1–0 Anderlecht26·26·48
- ✗Standard Liege 1–0 Antwerp36·28·37
- ✗Zulte Waregem 4–1 Gent33·27·40
- ✗St. Truiden 2–2 Anderlecht32·27·41
- ✓Dender 1–3 KV Mechelen34·28·38
- ✗Cercle Brugge 2–2 Genk36·27·37
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 3–1 Charleroi68·20·12
- ✓OH Leuven 0–1 Club Brugge KV16·22·62
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 91 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.