Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 39). Gent had 7 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 6.1 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Gent38%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise35%
Gent36%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Gent37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Gent31%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise43%
Gent37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 30
Team strength
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
46
AttackIn forecast
62
61
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentUnion St. Gilloise
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
2.55
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.38
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
18.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
35%
On target shareContext
50%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
66%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
7.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
75%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
541
PassesContext
403
446
Accurate passesContext
333
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.21
10.50
FoulsContext
14.00
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
17.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
34%
On target shareContext
41%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
68%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.56
BlocksContext
3.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
483
PassesContext
452
402
Accurate passesContext
357
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.16
12.60
FoulsContext
15.00
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Aug | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
2S. Kotto
3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo
15A. Ito
22Leonardo Lopes
19F. Surdez
18M. Samoise
45B. Goore
7A. Kanga
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
1V. Chambaere(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
8A. Zorgane
24C. Vanhoutte
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez
30R. Florucz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Union St. Gilloise-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Gent wins2 draws0 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Mar 2024Union St. Gilloise1–1Gent
- 26 Nov 2023Gent1–1Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Gent | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.50 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Gent | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.78 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 6.50 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.58
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 32%
Fouls23.9league 23.5
Penalties0.47league 0.42
Home wins60%league 47%
Gent5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D25 Feb 24H · Antwerp2–21
- W9 Dec 23H · RWDM4–00
- D12 Nov 23H · Anderlecht1–11
- D8 Oct 23H · Genk1–11
- W3 Sep 23H · Club Brugge KV2–12
Union St. Gilloise4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Jan 24A · Anderlecht2–22
- D26 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV1–17
- W5 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV2–13
- W1 Oct 23H · Charleroi3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
