Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Getafe39.5%fair odds 2.53
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.64
Racing Santander32.9%fair odds 3.03
Expected goals1.38 – 1.24total 2.62
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Racing Santander
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Getafe ↓ · Racing Santander → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Getafe goals, columns Racing Santander goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.63
- 1–09.4%10.66
- 2–18.6%11.63
- 0–18.4%11.97
- 0–07.9%12.61
- 1–27.7%12.95
- 2–06.9%14.42
- 0–25.6%17.89
- 2–25.3%18.75
- 3–14.0%25.24
Winning margin
6.9%
Getafe by 3+
fair 14.55
11.8%
Getafe by 2
fair 8.44
20.8%
Getafe by 1
fair 4.80
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.64
18.6%
Racing Santander by 1
fair 5.37
9.5%
Racing Santander by 2
fair 10.47
4.8%
Racing Santander by 3+
fair 20.93
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Getafe goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Racing Santander goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 39.5% | 40.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Racing Santander win | 32.9% | 32.6% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 50.4% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.9% | 55.1% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Getafe | 1.38 | 1.43 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Racing Santander | 1.24 | 1.26 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Getafe win39.5%2.53
- Draw27.5%3.64
- Racing Santander win32.9%3.03
- Double chance Getafe or draw67.1%1.49
- Double chance Getafe or Racing Santander72.5%1.38
- Double chance Racing Santander or draw60.5%1.65
- Draw no bet Getafe54.5%1.83
- Draw no bet Racing Santander45.5%2.20
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.3%1.35
- Over 2.548.7%2.05
- Over 3.526.9%3.72
- Over 4.512.6%7.96
- Under 1.525.7%3.90
- Under 2.551.3%1.95
- Under 3.573.1%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes53.9%1.86
- No46.1%2.17
- Yes and over 2.540.8%2.45
- Getafe win and yes18.5%5.39
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Racing Santander win and yes15.8%6.35
Team goals
- Getafe over 0.574.9%1.34
- Getafe over 1.540.2%2.49
- Getafe over 2.516.2%6.17
- Racing Santander over 0.571.1%1.41
- Racing Santander over 1.535.2%2.84
- Racing Santander over 2.512.9%7.73
- Getafe clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Racing Santander clean sheet25.1%3.98
- Getafe win to nil21.0%4.76
- Racing Santander win to nil17.2%5.82
Handicap
- Getafe −1.518.7%5.34
- Getafe −2.56.9%14.55
- Racing Santander +1.581.3%1.23
- Racing Santander +2.593.1%1.07
- Racing Santander −1.514.3%6.98
- Getafe +1.585.7%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won41.7%
Avg chance given to result37.0%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right41.7%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 45.1% | 14.3% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 57.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.