Getafe
Attack+7%
Defense risk−1%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 49). Absences weigh more on Getafe. Getafe were without Z. Romero and O. Mangala. Rayo Vallecano were without A. Batalla and A. Rațiu. Getafe had 9.1 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 9.3 and had to travel 13 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel13 kmRest days9.1 · 9.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Getafe34%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Getafe38%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Getafe35%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano36%
Getafe28%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Getafe36%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 88%
Referee · SpainJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
27
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
60
42
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack−2%
Defense risk−31%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
GetafeRayo Vallecano
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.29
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.75
ShotsContext
13.43
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
23%
On target shareContext
34%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
49%
Box shareContext
57%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.50
Shots allowedContext
16.57
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
4.38
BlocksContext
4.14
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
72%
Save rateContext
59%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
297
PassesContext
381
221
Accurate passesContext
308
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.25
FoulsContext
13.43
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
3.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.29
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
13.30
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
24%
On target shareContext
35%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
47%
Box shareContext
54%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.70
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
75%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
291
PassesContext
393
214
Accurate passesContext
320
74%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.30
FoulsContext
13.50
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
DDLWL
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,020 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Rayo Vallecano
LWLWD
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 9.3La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,020 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
22J. Mojica
26J. Valou
2D. Dakonam
10M. Satriano
6Mario Martín
8N. Gudelj
17Kiko Femenía
19E. Ünal
11Ramon Terrats
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
15Mujaid Sadick
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss
8Unai López
18Álvaro García
10Sergio Camello
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −42.9% · Defence line −27.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF Z. Romero Starter 6.86 Def −11.5%
- MID O. Mangala Starter 6.61 Att −8.7% Def −5.4%
- ATT Ivan Azón Monzón Starter 6.71 Att −17.0%
- ATT E. Ünal Starter 6.61 Att −17.0%
- DEF Andrés García Starter 6.53 Def −10.5%
- ATT Juanmi Depth 6.58 Att −0.2%
Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −25.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Batalla Starter 6.84 Def −12.2%
- DEF A. Rațiu Starter 6.80 Def −12.0%
- DEF Luiz Felipe Rotation 6.65 Def −1.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+1.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 2–5 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Racing Santander | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Alaves | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
0 Getafe wins6 draws4 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game0.20 – 1.00
Over 2.510%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets40% · 80%
- 3 May 2026Getafe0–2Rayo Vallecano
- 2 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano1–1Getafe
- 2 May 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Getafe
- 24 Aug 2024Getafe0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 13 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano0–0Getafe
- 2 Jan 2024Getafe0–2Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.29 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.86 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 71% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.40 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 6.14 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 11.43 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.63 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.13 | 4.71 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 8/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 11.00 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.10 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.34
Red cards0.15league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 55%
Fouls24.5league 24.6
Penalties0.31league 0.34
Home wins31%league 44%
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L31 Aug 26A · Osasuna0–14
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe8 games · scored 4 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano7 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
