Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Getafe had 5.8 days of rest, Real Betis 6.9 and had to travel 378 km.
Away travel378 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Getafe32%
Draw31%
Real Betis37%
Getafe30%
Draw27%
Real Betis43%
Getafe32%
Draw31%
Real Betis37%
Getafe26%
Draw30%
Real Betis44%
Getafe33%
Draw29%
Real Betis38%
Over 2.5 36%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 31
Team strength
Getafe
Real Betis
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
27
AttackIn forecast
79
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeReal Betis
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.12
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
58%
Scored inContext
92%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.15
ShotsContext
14.35
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.81
28%
On target shareContext
34%
5.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.69
57%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.65
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.12
Shots allowedContext
12.35
3.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
2.43
BlocksContext
3.24
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.16
79%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
289
PassesContext
448
202
Accurate passesContext
378
70%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.54
FoulsContext
10.54
15.04
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.77
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.00
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
28%
On target shareContext
30%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
68%
Box shareContext
54%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.44
BlocksContext
3.50
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
76%
Save rateContext
73%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
284
PassesContext
446
199
Accurate passesContext
378
70%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.20
FoulsContext
10.90
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel378 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Mar | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 378 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 25 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
2D. Dakonam
10M. Satriano
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
17Kiko Femenía
19L. Vázquez
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
5Marc Bartra
40Ángel Ortiz
15Álvaro Fidalgo
6Sergi Altimira
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
10A. Ezzalzouli
19C. Hernández
9L. Ávila
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Betis+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 0.85
Real Betis · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-2
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–5 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 3–5 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 40 of 75 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Getafe wins3 draws6 Real Betis wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.40
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 21 Dec 2025Real Betis4–0Getafe
- 23 Feb 2025Getafe1–2Real Betis
- 18 Sep 2024Real Betis2–1Getafe
- 4 Feb 2024Real Betis1–1Getafe
- 21 Oct 2023Getafe1–1Real Betis
- 24 May 2023Real Betis0–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.12 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 1.92 | 2.85 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 50% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 4% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 65% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 8% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Getafe | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 4.24 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.12 | 5.32 | |
| Match total | 8.31 | 9.56 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 24% 6/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.96 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.62 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 4.54 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 19/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Getafe | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.30 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.10 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 4.19
Red cards0.13league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 46%
Fouls23.7league 24.5
Penalties0.42league 0.37
Home wins45%league 47%
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Jan 26H · Real Sociedad1–22
Real Betis2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L6 Dec 25H · Barcelona3–55
- W24 Apr 25H · Valladolid5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe26 games · scored 21 · conceded 29
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
Real Betis26 games · scored 42 · conceded 32
3
8
0-15
9
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
7
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
