GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia – 24 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Mon, Aug 24 · 20:15 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Casa Pia 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GIL Vicente were slight favourites.

GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 15 days of rest, Casa Pia 7 and had to travel.

Rest days15 · 7Matches / 14d0 · 1

GIL Vicente56%

Draw24%

Casa Pia20%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.90

GIL Vicente53%

Draw24%

Casa Pia23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

GIL Vicente56%

Draw24%

Casa Pia20%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.90

GIL Vicente49%

Draw26%

Casa Pia25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.01

GIL Vicente56%

Draw24%

Casa Pia20%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.93

Over 2.5 49% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 19

Team strength

GIL Vicente

Casa Pia

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

32 AttackIn forecast 13

50 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

Casa Pia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 4.00

— xGVia Att/Def 0.42

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.12

— Goals minus xGContext -0.42

— Scored inContext 0%

— Clean sheetsContext 0%

— ShotsContext 6.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext 33%

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext 0%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

— Shots allowedContext 18.00

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

— BlocksContext 6.00

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

— Save rateContext 42%

— PossessionIn forecast 49%

— PassesContext 407

— Accurate passesContext 346

— Pass accuracyContext 85%

— Team ratingContext 6.34

— FoulsContext 12.00

— Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

— Yellow cardsContext 2.00

— Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 0 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

60% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.80 ShotsContext 9.00

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

34% On target shareContext 37%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

60% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.60 BlocksContext 4.50

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

69% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 40%

388 PassesContext 299

321 Accurate passesContext 222

83% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.30 FoulsContext 15.30

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente W

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected

W9 AugH · Rio Ave1–01.8 xPts

Casa Pia LL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 0 pts vs 3.0 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L17 AugH · Benfica0–70.5 xPts
L8 AugA · Maritimo0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30Lucão(G)

26Weverson 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 47Ricardo Esgaio

12A. Lausen 5F. Cáseres

20Gil Martins 10Santi García 11Joelson Fernandes

23Héctor Hernández

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31André Gomes(G)

5A. Conté 43David Sousa 4João Goulart 18André Geraldes

24S. Pérez 16Silvi 80L. Ofori

10Rochinha 20A. Jatta 9Henrique Araújo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Casa Pia · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 GIL Vicente wins3 draws1 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.63 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

27 Apr 2026GIL Vicente2–1Casa Pia
13 Dec 2025Casa Pia1–1GIL Vicente
22 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0GIL Vicente
22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente1–1Casa Pia
3 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–0GIL Vicente
2 Oct 2023GIL Vicente2–0Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	4.00
Match goals	1.00	4.00	2.62
Over 1.5	0%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	2

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.50
Conceded per game	1.30	1.70
Match goals	2.40	2.20	2.62
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.50
Corners conceded	2.00	2.50
Match total	7.00	6.00	8.86
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	4.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	3.50	4.41
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/2

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.22
Corners conceded	4.40	4.67
Match total	9.20	8.89	8.86
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	3.30
Opponent cards	2.00	2.10
Match total	4.20	5.40	4.41
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 4.30

Red cards0.11league 0.22

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls26.6league 25.7

Penalties0.37league 0.30

Home wins42%league 43%

GIL Vicente6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W1 Feb 26H · Famalicao5–01
D8 Dec 25A · Guimaraes0–05
L17 Feb 25H · Famalicao0–22
L27 Jan 25A · AVS0–11
L25 Oct 24A · Santa Clara1–25

Casa Pia1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W20 Dec 24H · Arouca3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.