GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. GIL Vicente had 6.9 days of rest, Estoril 8.1 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days6.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
GIL Vicente43%
Draw28%
Estoril29%
GIL Vicente44%
Draw27%
Estoril29%
GIL Vicente43%
Draw28%
Estoril29%
GIL Vicente36%
Draw28%
Estoril36%
GIL Vicente44%
Draw27%
Estoril29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 29
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Estoril
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
32
AttackIn forecast
21
50
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteEstoril
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
60%
Scored inContext
80%
80%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.40
ShotsContext
13.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
59%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.40
BlocksContext
3.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
83%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
326
PassesContext
396
257
Accurate passesContext
314
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.00
FoulsContext
13.20
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
61%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.14
11.90
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.70
BlocksContext
2.78
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
81%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
336
PassesContext
408
262
Accurate passesContext
326
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.10
FoulsContext
13.50
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km33 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 33 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
95Santi García
77Murilo
9Pablo
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
4Ferro
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
55Tiago Parente
10J. Holsgrove
7N. Lominadze
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Estoril · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 GIL Vicente wins1 draws3 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2025GIL Vicente1–2Estoril
- 25 Aug 2024Estoril0–0GIL Vicente
- 18 Feb 2024Estoril1–3GIL Vicente
- 17 Sep 2023GIL Vicente5–3Estoril
- 31 Mar 2023Estoril1–0GIL Vicente
- 7 Oct 2022GIL Vicente0–1Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| GIL Vicente | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.80 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.60 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| GIL Vicente | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 7.20 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 5.04
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+52%league 62%
Fouls29.5league 27.7
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins45%league 32%
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D10 May 25H · Arouca1–11
- W1 Apr 25A · Boavista3–13
Estoril5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- W26 Oct 24H · Arouca4–14
- L18 May 24A · Moreirense1–20
- W10 Dec 23H · Chaves4–04
- D21 May 23A · Casa Pia2–26
- W26 Aug 22A · Pacos Ferreira3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente5 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Estoril5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
