GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 17). GIL Vicente had 7.8 days of rest, Estrela 6.9 and had to travel 313 km.
Away travel313 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente53%
Draw26%
Estrela22%
GIL Vicente54%
Draw25%
Estrela22%
GIL Vicente53%
Draw26%
Estrela22%
GIL Vicente45%
Draw27%
Estrela27%
GIL Vicente54%
Draw25%
Estrela22%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
- Cards per match 1.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Estrela
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
32
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteEstrela
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
71%
Scored inContext
43%
71%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.14
ShotsContext
10.71
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
5.57
62%
Box shareContext
50%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
2.40
BlocksContext
3.29
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
80%
Save rateContext
91%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
336
PassesContext
326
263
Accurate passesContext
257
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
15.14
FoulsContext
12.43
14.57
Fouls sufferedContext
16.71
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
80%
Scored inContext
30%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
33%
On target shareContext
30%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
61%
Box shareContext
53%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.63
BlocksContext
3.50
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
341
PassesContext
323
267
Accurate passesContext
250
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.20
FoulsContext
12.30
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
16.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel313 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Sep | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 313 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 631 km | 439 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 21.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
5F. Cáseres
11Joelson Fernandes
10Luís Esteves
95Santi García
77Murilo
9Pablo
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
79A. Chernev
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
21Guilherme Montóia
18Jorge Meireles
19Paulo Moreira
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
10I. Stoica
9Rodrigo Pinho
98Kikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Estrela · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins2 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 7 Mar 2025Estrela1–1GIL Vicente
- 5 Oct 2024GIL Vicente3–0Estrela
- 18 May 2024Estrela1–0GIL Vicente
- 14 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 1.71 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 29% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 29% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| GIL Vicente | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 1.71 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 29% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 29% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.83 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.42 | 5.71 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| GIL Vicente | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 7.67 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.60 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.00league 5.08
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 63%
Fouls25.0league 27.9
Penalties0.00league 0.41
Home wins100%league 34%
GIL VicenteNo previous matches with this referee.
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente7 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Estrela7 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
