GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 5 days of rest, Guimaraes 7.2 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days5 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
GIL Vicente46%
Draw26%
Guimaraes28%
GIL Vicente44%
Draw27%
Guimaraes29%
GIL Vicente46%
Draw26%
Guimaraes28%
GIL Vicente38%
Draw27%
Guimaraes35%
GIL Vicente46%
Draw26%
Guimaraes28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 18
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
32
AttackIn forecast
28
50
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteGuimaraes
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
79%
Scored inContext
66%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
13.72
ShotsContext
13.07
4.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.97
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.79
Shots in the boxContext
7.31
57%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.79
Shots allowedContext
10.97
3.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
2.46
BlocksContext
3.13
2.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
365
PassesContext
378
296
Accurate passesContext
311
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.31
FoulsContext
14.45
14.24
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.50
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
36%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.50
BlocksContext
2.57
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
60%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
408
333
Accurate passesContext
340
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.80
FoulsContext
14.50
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km243 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Apr | 7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 243 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
48Espigares
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
16Beni
23Diogo Sousa
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
88M. Nogueira
11Gustavo Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 0.86
Guimaraes · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-9
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 5–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alverca | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | L 2–4 AW 3–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 84 · 1.61 per game | 35 of 84 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 GIL Vicente wins1 draws4 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.57 – 1.29
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets29% · 57%
- 8 Dec 2025Guimaraes0–0GIL Vicente
- 11 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Guimaraes
- 2 Dec 2024Guimaraes4–0GIL Vicente
- 28 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–0Guimaraes
- 19 Aug 2023Guimaraes2–1GIL Vicente
- 21 May 2023Guimaraes1–0GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.69 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 48% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| GIL Vicente | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.48 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 3.37 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 7.81 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 15/25 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 19% 5/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 2.79 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.10 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 20/29 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 16/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| GIL Vicente | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 8.38 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.79
Red cards0.78league 0.24
Cards 5+67%league 57%
Fouls25.3league 26.9
Penalties0.56league 0.43
Home wins28%league 41%
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L2 Mar 26H · Benfica1–22
- L26 Sep 25A · Benfica1–24
Guimaraes2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L18 Jan 26H · FC Porto0–14
- W4 Oct 25H · Santa Clara2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente29 games · scored 44 · conceded 30
8
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
13
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
11
6
76-90
Guimaraes29 games · scored 35 · conceded 43
2
6
0-15
8
6
16-30
7
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
4
8
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
4
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
