GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 7.2 days of rest, SC Braga 6.1 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days7.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente33%
Draw28%
SC Braga40%
GIL Vicente28%
Draw26%
SC Braga46%
GIL Vicente33%
Draw28%
SC Braga40%
GIL Vicente26%
Draw27%
SC Braga47%
GIL Vicente33%
Draw28%
SC Braga39%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 17
Team strength
GIL Vicente
SC Braga
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
32
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteSC Braga
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.81
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
76%
Scored inContext
86%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.71
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.24
33%
On target shareContext
41%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
56%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.15
9.57
Shots allowedContext
7.76
3.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.95
2.31
BlocksContext
2.22
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.28
77%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
359
PassesContext
611
291
Accurate passesContext
538
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.90
FoulsContext
10.57
14.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.95
2.48
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
15.00
ShotsContext
10.30
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
31%
On target shareContext
42%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
53%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
19%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.50
Shots allowedContext
8.00
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
1.75
BlocksContext
1.70
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
62%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
383
PassesContext
608
316
Accurate passesContext
535
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.20
FoulsContext
9.50
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km57 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel16 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 57 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
6Zé Carlos
11Joelson Fernandes
95Santi García
77Murilo
29Carlos Eduardo
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
27F. Grillitsch
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
2.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-2
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.70
SC Braga · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Famalicao | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| AVS | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 34 of 60 · 1.70 per game | 39 of 60 · 1.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins2 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.71 – 1.29
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets29% · 57%
- 14 Sep 2025SC Braga0–1GIL Vicente
- 9 Feb 2025SC Braga2–0GIL Vicente
- 1 Sep 2024GIL Vicente0–0SC Braga
- 16 Mar 2024SC Braga2–1GIL Vicente
- 28 Oct 2023GIL Vicente3–3SC Braga
- 16 Apr 2023SC Braga1–0GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.81 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.95 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| GIL Vicente | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.27 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 11/18 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 11/18 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 4.34 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 17/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 14/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| GIL Vicente | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 7.11 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.00 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.95
Red cards0.24league 0.28
Cards 5+53%league 60%
Fouls28.7league 27.0
Penalties0.35league 0.45
Home wins24%league 41%
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L29 Nov 25H · Tondela0–12
SC Braga3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W6 Dec 25A · Famalicao2–13
- D5 Oct 25A · Sporting CP1–15
- W10 Aug 25H · Tondela3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente21 games · scored 31 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
11
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
2
76-90
SC Braga21 games · scored 44 · conceded 18
8
2
0-15
10
5
16-30
8
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
