Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Girona32.7%fair odds 3.06
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52
Celta Vigo39.0%fair odds 2.57
Expected goals1.18 – 1.31total 2.49
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Girona ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Girona goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.40
- 0–110.2%9.78
- 1–09.1%10.96
- 0–09.0%11.10
- 1–28.4%11.92
- 2–17.5%13.25
- 0–27.1%14.02
- 2–05.8%17.34
- 2–24.9%20.25
- 1–33.7%27.32
Winning margin
4.4%
Girona by 3+
fair 22.60
9.4%
Girona by 2
fair 10.68
18.9%
Girona by 1
fair 5.30
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.52
21.1%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.75
11.6%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 8.64
6.3%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 15.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Girona goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Celta Vigo goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 32.7% | 33.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.4% | +1.0 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 39.0% | 39.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.2% | 49.3% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.2% | 54.4% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Girona | 1.18 | 1.25 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.31 | 1.39 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Girona win32.7%3.06
- Draw28.4%3.52
- Celta Vigo win39.0%2.57
- Double chance Girona or draw61.0%1.64
- Double chance Girona or Celta Vigo71.6%1.40
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw67.3%1.49
- Draw no bet Girona45.6%2.19
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo54.4%1.84
Goals
- Over 0.591.0%1.10
- Over 1.571.6%1.40
- Over 2.545.2%2.21
- Over 3.523.9%4.18
- Over 4.510.7%9.36
- Under 1.528.4%3.53
- Under 2.554.8%1.83
- Under 3.576.1%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes51.2%1.95
- No48.8%2.05
- Yes and over 2.537.6%2.66
- Girona win and yes14.6%6.83
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Celta Vigo win and yes17.1%5.84
Team goals
- Girona over 0.569.2%1.45
- Girona over 1.532.9%3.04
- Girona over 2.511.5%8.66
- Celta Vigo over 0.573.0%1.37
- Celta Vigo over 1.537.6%2.66
- Celta Vigo over 2.514.5%6.90
- Girona clean sheet27.0%3.70
- Celta Vigo clean sheet30.8%3.24
- Girona win to nil18.0%5.55
- Celta Vigo win to nil21.8%4.58
Handicap
- Girona −1.513.8%7.25
- Girona −2.54.4%22.60
- Celta Vigo +1.586.2%1.16
- Celta Vigo +2.595.6%1.05
- Celta Vigo −1.517.9%5.59
- Girona +1.582.1%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored257
Favourite won53.3%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right58.8%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 45 | 37.8% | 35.6% |
| 40–50% | 107 | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 54.8% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 257 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 257 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.