Girona vs Celta Vigo – 1 Mar 2026

La Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 1 · 20:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 12th · 30 pts · 25 played DLDWD

1–2Full time

Celta Vigo 6th · 37 pts · 25 played LDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celta Vigo. Girona had 6 days of rest, Celta Vigo 3 and had to travel 952 km.

Away travel952 kmRest days6 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Girona33%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo39%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.31

Girona33%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Girona31%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo40%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.31

Girona26%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo46%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.47

Girona33%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo40%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.39

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 38

Team strength

Girona

Celta Vigo

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

49 AttackIn forecast 36

64 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Celta Vigo

1.04 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.08

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

72% Scored inContext 84%

16% Clean sheetsContext 32%

9.64 ShotsContext 10.84

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.96

40% On target shareContext 37%

6.24 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

65% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.61 OffsidesContext 2.61

15.12 Shots allowedContext 11.32

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

3.64 BlocksContext 3.39

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.23

70% Save rateContext 76%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

442 PassesContext 490

375 Accurate passesContext 422

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.00 FoulsContext 11.32

14.28 Fouls sufferedContext 11.64

2.16 Yellow cardsContext 1.72

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.60 ShotsContext 11.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

40% On target shareContext 39%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

67% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 13%

3.29 OffsidesContext 2.75

12.40 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

3.40 BlocksContext 3.78

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.71

71% Save rateContext 60%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

484 PassesContext 478

415 Accurate passesContext 414

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.40 FoulsContext 11.00

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km923 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel952 km5,260 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Feb	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	952 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	923 km	5,260 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

4Arnau Martínez 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

20A. Witsel 8Fran Beltrán

21Bryan Gil 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

24Carlos Domínguez 4J. Aidoo 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 16Miguel Román 3Óscar Mingueza

23Hugo Álvarez 9Ferran Jutglà 8Fer López

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Celta Vigo-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.33points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.58

Celta Vigo · Away 1.67points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Celta Vigo
Alaves	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Barcelona	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 2–4 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Getafe	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Espanyol	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Elche	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
Real Madrid	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 H
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Levante	L 0–4 H	W 2–1 A
Villarreal	L 0–5 A	D 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Points	29 of 72 · 1.21 per game	36 of 72 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Girona wins4 draws1 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.86 Over 2.514% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

14 Sep 2025Celta Vigo1–1Girona
1 Mar 2025Girona2–2Celta Vigo
29 Sep 2024Celta Vigo1–1Girona
28 Jan 2024Celta Vigo0–1Girona
27 Oct 2023Girona1–0Celta Vigo
23 May 2023Celta Vigo1–1Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.04	1.36
Conceded per game	1.60	1.08
Match goals	2.64	2.44	2.49
Over 1.5	84%	80%
Over 2.5	52%	36%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	16%	32%
Failed to score	28%	16%
Games	25	25

	Girona	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.50
Conceded per game	1.10	1.00
Match goals	2.40	2.50	2.49
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.26	4.12
Corners conceded	4.87	4.48
Match total	9.13	8.60	9.51
Over 8.5	52% 12/23	48% 12/25
Over 9.5	39% 9/23	32% 8/25
Over 10.5	35% 8/23	24% 6/25
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.76
Opponent cards	1.76	2.68
Match total	4.16	4.44	4.45
Over 3.5	36% 9/25	60% 15/25
Over 4.5	32% 8/25	44% 11/25

	Girona	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.60
Corners conceded	4.30	3.70
Match total	8.30	8.30	9.51
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.45
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 4.19

Red cards0.26league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls23.8league 24.6

Penalties0.24league 0.38

Home wins37%league 47%

Girona4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W12 Dec 25A · Real Sociedad2–12
L30 Aug 25H · Sevilla0–20
L18 May 25A · Real Sociedad2–33
W22 Oct 23H · Almeria5–21

Celta Vigo4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D26 May 24H · Valencia2–20
D25 Feb 24A · Cadiz2–23
W3 Jan 24H · Real Betis2–11
D19 Aug 23A · Real Sociedad1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.