Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Girona. Girona had 3.1 days of rest, Espanyol 3.1 and had to travel 94 km.
Away travel94 kmRest days3.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Girona32%
Draw29%
Espanyol38%
Girona34%
Draw27%
Espanyol38%
Girona34%
Draw29%
Espanyol37%
Girona26%
Draw28%
Espanyol45%
Girona33%
Draw27%
Espanyol40%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 23
Team strength
Girona
Espanyol
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
49
AttackIn forecast
36
64
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaEspanyol
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
2.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
50%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.17
ShotsContext
11.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
36%
On target shareContext
37%
5.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.17
Shots allowedContext
13.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
3.50
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
56%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
384
PassesContext
350
318
Accurate passesContext
279
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.17
FoulsContext
13.17
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.40
ShotsContext
10.90
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
37%
On target shareContext
34%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
59%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.29
15.40
Shots allowedContext
13.30
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.30
BlocksContext
3.60
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
62%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
414
PassesContext
346
351
Accurate passesContext
273
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.80
FoulsContext
12.20
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,887 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Espanyol
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel94 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 94 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,887 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
24Álex Moreno
18A. Ounahi
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
2Hugo Rincón
19V. Vanat
8Portu
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
38C. Riedel
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
11Pere Milla
4Urko González
10Pol Lozano
24T. Dolan
9R. Fernández Jaén
7Javi Puado
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Espanyol+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Espanyol · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Girona wins2 draws0 Espanyol wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Mar 2025Espanyol1–1Girona
- 23 Nov 2024Girona4–1Espanyol
- 1 Apr 2023Girona2–1Espanyol
- 7 Jan 2023Espanyol2–2Girona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.17 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Girona | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.17 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.83 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 7.67 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.33 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Girona | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.40 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.10 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.09league 3.85
Red cards0.09league 0.27
Cards 5+43%league 40%
Fouls23.7league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins48%league 45%
Girona3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L3 Mar 24A · Mallorca0–10
- W18 Dec 23H · Alaves3–00
- D12 Aug 23A · Real Sociedad1–15
Espanyol1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25A · Osasuna0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona6 games · scored 3 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
6
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Espanyol6 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
7
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
