Girona vs Valencia – 4 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 4 · 15:15 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 20th · 3 pts · 7 played LDLDD

2–1Full time

Valencia 14th · 8 pts · 7 played WLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Girona. Girona had 7.8 days of rest, Valencia 3.8 and had to travel 388 km.

Away travel388 kmRest days7.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Girona31%

Draw29%

Valencia40%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.32

Girona33%

Draw27%

Valencia40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Girona33%

Draw28%

Valencia39%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.31

Girona25%

Draw27%

Valencia47%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.48

Girona32%

Draw27%

Valencia41%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.42

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 26

Team strength

Girona

Valencia

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

49 AttackIn forecast 39

64 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Valencia

0.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

43% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

9.29 ShotsContext 9.00

3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.86

35% On target shareContext 32%

5.71 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

61% Box shareContext 61%

5% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.80

16.71 Shots allowedContext 15.29

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

3.71 BlocksContext 4.14

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

62% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 47%

403 PassesContext 380

337 Accurate passesContext 307

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.14 FoulsContext 10.86

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.29

1.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.29 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

2.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.90 ShotsContext 8.90

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.70

38% On target shareContext 30%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.75

60% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.88

16.00 Shots allowedContext 14.20

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.60 BlocksContext 3.70

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

64% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

413 PassesContext 421

348 Accurate passesContext 344

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.40 FoulsContext 10.80

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km983 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel388 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Sep	3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	388 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	983 km	590 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	16.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 16Alejandro Francés

24Álex Moreno 23Iván Martín 20A. Witsel 4Arnau Martínez

8Portu 19V. Vanat 10Y. Asprilla

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

21Jesús Vázquez 4M. Diakhaby 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

16Diego López 22B. Santamaría 18Pepelu 11Luis Rioja

15L. Beltrán 7A. Danjuma

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona-1.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Valencia+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 2.25

Valencia · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Girona	Valencia
Espanyol	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Girona wins1 draws2 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

15 Mar 2025Girona1–1Valencia
21 Sep 2024Valencia2–0Girona
19 May 2024Valencia1–3Girona
2 Dec 2023Girona2–1Valencia
5 Feb 2023Girona1–0Valencia
14 Aug 2022Valencia1–0Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.43	1.29
Conceded per game	2.29	1.71
Match goals	2.71	3.00	2.45
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	57%	44%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	43%	50%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	57%	29%
Games	7	7

	Girona	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.43	1.29
Conceded per game	2.29	1.71
Match goals	2.71	3.00	2.45
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	57%	44%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	43%	50%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	57%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	5.14
Corners conceded	5.57	5.57
Match total	9.86	10.71	9.58
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.86
Opponent cards	1.00	1.57
Match total	2.86	3.43	4.20
Over 3.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7

	Girona	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.70
Corners conceded	6.10	5.40
Match total	9.80	10.10	9.58
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	0.90	1.70
Match total	2.50	3.70	4.20
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.62league 3.93

Red cards0.27league 0.25

Cards 5+65%league 43%

Fouls27.3league 24.4

Penalties0.31league 0.29

Home wins31%league 47%

Girona4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 May 25H · Villarreal0–12
W10 Dec 23A · Barcelona4–22
W27 Oct 23H · Celta Vigo1–03
W18 Sep 23A · Granada CF4–23

Valencia1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W14 Jan 24A · Cadiz4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.