GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles
15th · 23 pts · 23 played
DDDLL
First leg2–4
4–0Full time
Heracles
18th · 17 pts · 23 played
LLWLL
GO Ahead Eagles48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Heracles26.3%fair odds 3.81
Expected goals1.66 – 1.17total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Heracles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Heracles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.30
- 2–19.5%10.51
- 1–09.2%10.90
- 2–08.1%12.30
- 1–26.7%14.93
- 0–06.5%15.41
- 0–16.3%15.93
- 2–25.6%17.95
- 3–15.3%18.96
- 3–04.5%22.19
Winning margin
11.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 9.04
14.9%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 6.72
22.3%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.48
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
15.5%
Heracles by 1
fair 6.43
7.4%
Heracles by 2
fair 13.57
3.4%
Heracles by 3+
fair 29.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Heracles goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 48.3% | 47.7% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Heracles win | 26.3% | 26.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 52.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 55.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.66 | 1.63 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Heracles win26.3%3.81
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw73.7%1.36
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Heracles74.5%1.34
- Double chance Heracles or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles64.8%1.54
- Draw no bet Heracles35.2%2.84
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.1%1.28
- Over 2.553.8%1.86
- Over 3.531.5%3.17
- Over 4.515.8%6.35
- Under 1.521.9%4.56
- Under 2.546.2%2.17
- Under 3.568.5%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.544.5%2.25
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes23.7%4.21
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Heracles win and yes13.8%7.25
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.581.0%1.23
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.549.5%2.02
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.523.3%4.29
- Heracles over 0.569.0%1.45
- Heracles over 1.532.7%3.06
- Heracles over 2.511.4%8.76
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet31.0%3.22
- Heracles clean sheet19.0%5.27
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil24.5%4.08
- Heracles win to nil12.5%8.02
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.525.9%3.86
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.511.1%9.04
- Heracles +1.574.1%1.35
- Heracles +2.588.9%1.12
- Heracles −1.510.7%9.33
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.589.3%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored212
Favourite won50.5%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right61.8%
BTTS called right63.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 76 | 44.9% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 48 | 55.0% | 45.8% |
| 60–70% | 28 | 64.2% | 64.3% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.3% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 189 of 212 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5957 | 0.5900 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 49.7% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 189 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 212 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.