GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
15th · 23 pts · 23 played
DDDLL
First leg2–4
4–0Full time
Heracles
18th · 17 pts · 23 played
LLWLL
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heracles. GO Ahead Eagles had 7.1 days of rest, Heracles 7.9 and had to travel 36 km.
Away travel36 kmRest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw25%
Heracles26%
GO Ahead Eagles53%
Draw25%
Heracles22%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Heracles26%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Draw26%
Heracles33%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Heracles27%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 94
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesHeracles
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
29
AttackIn forecast
7
17
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesHeracles
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.52
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
83%
Scored inContext
61%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
11.04
ShotsContext
10.52
5.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
44%
On target shareContext
37%
8.32
Shots in the boxContext
7.32
68%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.74
OffsidesContext
1.94
18.30
Shots allowedContext
16.78
5.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.57
6.38
BlocksContext
5.32
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.96
75%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
414
PassesContext
333
338
Accurate passesContext
255
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.39
FoulsContext
12.43
10.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.13
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
9.20
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
68%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
17.40
Shots allowedContext
16.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
5.80
BlocksContext
5.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
71%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
399
PassesContext
319
323
Accurate passesContext
241
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.10
FoulsContext
13.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Heracles
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel36 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 36 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
18R. Margaret
17M. Suray
10S. Tengstedt
16V. Edvardsen
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
5D. van der Kust
24I. Mesík
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
2M. Benita
9N. Ünüvar
20Rhys Bozinovski
70A. Hrustić
19L. Kulenović
25L. Zeefuik
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Heracles+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-2
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.45
Heracles · Away
0.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-10
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Groningen | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Twente | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Utrecht | D 2–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 3–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 AL 1–4 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 8–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game | 14 of 66 · 0.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 GO Ahead Eagles wins0 draws2 Heracles wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Heracles4–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 8 Feb 2025Heracles4–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 6 Oct 2024GO Ahead Eagles4–1Heracles
- 7 Oct 2023GO Ahead Eagles4–0Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.52 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 3.87 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 74% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 39% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.48 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.74 | 6.09 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 10.31 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 19/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 16/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 13/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 3.92 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 10/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 6/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.90 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.30
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+43%league 30%
Fouls23.3league 21.6
Penalties0.31league 0.25
Home wins47%league 44%
GO Ahead Eagles6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Jan 26A · Ajax2–24
- W13 Sep 25H · FC Volendam3–01
- D6 Apr 25H · Utrecht2–21
- W18 Jan 25H · Groningen2–11
- L10 Nov 24A · Heerenveen0–12
Heracles6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Jan 26A · Feyenoord2–42
- W27 Sep 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
- W13 Apr 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- D11 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–13
- L1 Sep 24A · PEC Zwolle0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles22 games · scored 31 · conceded 39
6
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
9
76-90
Heracles23 games · scored 31 · conceded 58
3
6
0-15
6
7
16-30
6
13
31-45
7
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
5
17
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
