GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
22nd · 6 pts · 4 played
LWWL
0–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart
21st · 6 pts · 4 played
WLLW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 28). Absences weigh more on GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 5 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 5.2 and had to travel 441 km.
Away travel441 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart54%
GO Ahead Eagles23%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart52%
GO Ahead Eagles22%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart53%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart62%
GO Ahead Eagles22%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart53%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · SwedenMohammed Al-Hakim
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 22
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesVfB Stuttgart
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
29
AttackIn forecast
70
17
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesVfB Stuttgart
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.25
ShotsContext
17.75
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
43%
On target shareContext
28%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.25
74%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
18.25
Shots allowedContext
12.25
7.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
5.33
BlocksContext
4.25
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
83%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
432
PassesContext
486
369
Accurate passesContext
416
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.25
FoulsContext
15.00
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.50
ShotsContext
16.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
43%
On target shareContext
34%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
69%
Box shareContext
67%
19%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
18.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.78
BlocksContext
3.70
5.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
79%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
404
PassesContext
511
333
Accurate passesContext
430
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.60
FoulsContext
12.70
11.78
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km71 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel441 km655 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 441 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 71 km | 655 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
6C. Twigt
24K. Goudmijn
9M. Smit
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
7M. Mittelstädt
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
22L. Assignon
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.75 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.75 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.90 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mohammed Al-Hakim Sweden · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18league 4.06
Red cards0.14league 0.16
Cards 5+23%league 41%
Fouls23.2league 24.7
Penalties0.18league 0.40
Home wins55%league 49%
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
VfB StuttgartNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles4 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
VfB Stuttgart4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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