UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 20:00 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
GO Ahead Eagles 22nd · 6 pts · 4 played
0–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart 21st · 6 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
GO Ahead Eagles21.5%fair odds 4.66
Draw24.3%fair odds 4.12
VfB Stuttgart54.3%fair odds 1.84
Expected goals1.06 – 1.80total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

VfB Stuttgart

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · VfB Stuttgart →0123456+
06.39.89.35.62.50.90.4
15.511.59.85.92.71.00.4
23.25.85.23.11.40.50.2
31.12.01.81.10.50.20.1
40.30.50.50.30.10.00.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.5%8.70
  • 1–29.8%10.16
  • 0–19.8%10.24
  • 0–29.3%10.73
  • 0–06.3%15.82
  • 1–35.9%16.92
  • 2–15.8%17.35
  • 0–35.6%17.86
  • 1–05.5%18.24
  • 2–25.2%19.26

Winning margin

2.3% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 43.38
5.8% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 17.32
13.4% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 7.47
24.3% Draw fair 4.12
23.3% VfB Stuttgart by 1 fair 4.30
16.8% VfB Stuttgart by 2 fair 5.94
14.2% VfB Stuttgart by 3+ fair 7.05

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

VfB Stuttgart goals

16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
GO Ahead Eagles win 21.5% 21.9% -0.4 pp
Draw 24.3% 25.3% -1.1 pp
VfB Stuttgart win 54.3% 52.8% +1.4 pp
Over 2.5 54.4% 50.7% +3.7 pp
Both teams score 55.0% 52.4% +2.6 pp
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 1.06 1.01 +0.05
Expected goals VfB Stuttgart 1.80 1.69 +0.11

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • GO Ahead Eagles win21.5%4.66
  • Draw24.3%4.12
  • VfB Stuttgart win54.3%1.84
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw45.7%2.19
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or VfB Stuttgart75.7%1.32
  • Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw78.5%1.27
  • Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles28.3%3.53
  • Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart71.7%1.40

Goals

  • Over 0.593.7%1.07
  • Over 1.578.4%1.28
  • Over 2.554.4%1.84
  • Over 3.532.1%3.12
  • Over 4.516.1%6.20
  • Under 1.521.6%4.64
  • Under 2.545.6%2.19
  • Under 3.567.9%1.47

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.0%1.82
  • No45.0%2.22
  • Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
  • GO Ahead Eagles win and yes11.3%8.86
  • Draw and yes17.9%5.58
  • VfB Stuttgart win and yes25.8%3.88

Team goals

  • GO Ahead Eagles over 0.565.2%1.53
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 1.528.5%3.51
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 2.59.1%11.01
  • VfB Stuttgart over 0.583.5%1.20
  • VfB Stuttgart over 1.553.8%1.86
  • VfB Stuttgart over 2.527.0%3.71
  • GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet16.5%6.06
  • VfB Stuttgart clean sheet34.8%2.87
  • GO Ahead Eagles win to nil10.2%9.83
  • VfB Stuttgart win to nil28.5%3.51

Handicap

  • GO Ahead Eagles −1.58.1%12.38
  • GO Ahead Eagles −2.52.3%43.38
  • VfB Stuttgart +1.591.9%1.09
  • VfB Stuttgart +2.597.7%1.02
  • VfB Stuttgart −1.531.0%3.22
  • GO Ahead Eagles +1.569.0%1.45

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored81 Favourite won53.1% Avg chance given to result40.1% 1X2 Brier0.590 Over 2.5 called right50.6% BTTS called right50.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%938.6%33.3%
40–50%3344.6%45.5%
50–60%2954.8%69.0%
60–70%766.0%28.6%
70–80%272.7%100.0%
80%+182.7%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 63 of 81 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58920.5931
Avg chance given to result40.4%40.9%
Favourite won52.4%58.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 63 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 81 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.