Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen
11th · 31 pts · 25 played
LLLLL
First leg0–2
3–1Full time
Ajax
3rd · 44 pts · 25 played
DDWDD
Groningen29.6%fair odds 3.38
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
Ajax44.7%fair odds 2.24
Expected goals1.27 – 1.61total 2.88
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · Ajax → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns Ajax goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.26
- 1–29.2%10.83
- 0–18.4%11.84
- 2–17.3%13.72
- 0–27.3%13.74
- 1–06.5%15.29
- 0–06.2%16.02
- 2–25.9%17.06
- 1–34.9%20.21
- 2–04.5%22.05
Winning margin
4.3%
Groningen by 3+
fair 23.30
8.5%
Groningen by 2
fair 11.73
16.8%
Groningen by 1
fair 5.96
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
21.4%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.67
13.7%
Ajax by 2
fair 7.31
9.6%
Ajax by 3+
fair 10.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Groningen goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Ajax goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 29.6% | 29.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.8% | -1.1 pp |
| Ajax win | 44.7% | 43.5% | +1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 50.5% | +4.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 54.8% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.27 | 1.20 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Ajax | 1.61 | 1.50 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win29.6%3.38
- Draw25.7%3.89
- Ajax win44.7%2.24
- Double chance Groningen or draw55.3%1.81
- Double chance Groningen or Ajax74.3%1.35
- Double chance Ajax or draw70.4%1.42
- Draw no bet Groningen39.8%2.51
- Draw no bet Ajax60.2%1.66
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.9%1.82
- Over 3.532.5%3.08
- Over 4.516.4%6.08
- Under 1.521.2%4.71
- Under 2.545.1%2.22
- Under 3.567.5%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.0%2.17
- Groningen win and yes15.8%6.33
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Ajax win and yes22.8%4.38
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.571.9%1.39
- Groningen over 1.536.2%2.76
- Groningen over 2.513.6%7.36
- Ajax over 0.580.0%1.25
- Ajax over 1.547.7%2.09
- Ajax over 2.521.9%4.57
- Groningen clean sheet20.0%4.99
- Ajax clean sheet28.1%3.56
- Groningen win to nil13.8%7.25
- Ajax win to nil21.9%4.57
Handicap
- Groningen −1.512.8%7.80
- Groningen −2.54.3%23.30
- Ajax +1.587.2%1.15
- Ajax +2.595.7%1.04
- Ajax −1.523.3%4.30
- Groningen +1.576.7%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored226
Favourite won51.3%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right62.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.1% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.8% | 48.8% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 55.0% | 44.0% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.2% | 62.1% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.3% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 226 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 226 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.