Groningen vs Ajax – 7 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Mar 7 · 15:30 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 11th · 31 pts · 25 played LLLLL

First leg0–2 3–1Full time

Ajax 3rd · 44 pts · 25 played DDWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Groningen. Groningen had 6.1 days of rest, Ajax 6.2 and had to travel 147 km.

Away travel147 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Groningen30%

Draw26%

Ajax45%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.61

Groningen26%

Draw26%

Ajax48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Groningen30%

Draw26%

Ajax44%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.58

Groningen23%

Draw24%

Ajax52%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.80

Groningen30%

Draw27%

Ajax44%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.50

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 96

Team strength

Groningen

Ajax

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

41 AttackIn forecast 66

21 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Ajax

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

76% Scored inContext 92%

28% Clean sheetsContext 24%

15.08 ShotsContext 14.40

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.08

37% On target shareContext 42%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.36

57% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.95 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.76 Shots allowedContext 12.76

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

2.86 BlocksContext 4.00

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.46

64% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

415 PassesContext 521

335 Accurate passesContext 450

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.72 FoulsContext 9.96

9.96 Fouls sufferedContext 12.24

1.68 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.10 ShotsContext 14.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

30% On target shareContext 41%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

56% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.57

10.00 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.44 BlocksContext 3.38

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 59%

424 PassesContext 540

344 Accurate passesContext 468

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.10 FoulsContext 8.70

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km484 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel147 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	147 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	484 km	166 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 16T. Mercera

7T. Hernes 14J. Schreuders 18T. Land 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen 9B. Willumsson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

26M. Paes(G)

5O. Wijndal 15Y. Baas 37J. Šutalo 3A. Gaaei

48Sean Steur 24J. Mokio 18D. Klaassen

11M. Godts 25W. Weghorst 23S. Berghuis

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen-0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Ajax+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.25points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-5
Scored: 1.42
Conceded: 1.08

Ajax · Away 1.42points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-8-1
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Ajax
FC Volendam	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Twente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 A
Utrecht	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	D 2–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	D 3–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	W 4–1 HW 3–1 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
Telstar	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 2–0 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–4 A	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Points	31 of 72 · 1.29 per game	41 of 72 · 1.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Groningen wins1 draws2 Ajax wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

2 Dec 2025Ajax2–0Groningen
14 May 2025Groningen2–2Ajax
6 Oct 2024Ajax3–1Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.88
Conceded per game	1.40	1.24
Match goals	2.72	3.12	2.88
Over 1.5	88%	96%
Over 2.5	52%	56%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	44%
Both teams scored	52%	72%	58%
Clean sheets	28%	24%
Failed to score	24%	8%
Games	25	25

	Groningen	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.10
Match goals	2.60	3.00	2.88
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	4.70
Corners conceded	4.42	5.30
Match total	10.55	10.00	10.30
Over 8.5	71% 17/24	57% 13/23
Over 9.5	46% 11/24	43% 10/23
Over 10.5	38% 9/24	39% 9/23
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.64
Opponent cards	1.68	1.68
Match total	3.44	3.32	3.48
Over 3.5	48% 12/25	40% 10/25
Over 4.5	24% 6/25	32% 8/25

	Groningen	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	7.90	3.13
Corners conceded	3.90	6.00
Match total	11.80	9.13	10.30
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	0.90
Opponent cards	1.40	2.00
Match total	2.90	2.90	3.48
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.01league 3.28

Red cards0.11league 0.19

Cards 5+43%league 30%

Fouls23.2league 21.6

Penalties0.30league 0.25

Home wins48%league 45%

Groningen6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

L14 Feb 26H · Utrecht1–20
D10 Jan 26H · NAC Breda0–01
L10 Aug 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–42
W3 May 25H · Waalwijk6–10
L18 Jan 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21

Ajax11 with this referee

Record5-4-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D17 Jan 26H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
W14 Dec 25H · Feyenoord2–02
W26 Oct 25A · Twente3–22
D21 Sep 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–24
L11 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.