Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar – 22 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 22 · 15:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 10th · 35 pts · 27 played LLLWD

First leg1–4 3–0Full time

AZ Alkmaar 6th · 42 pts · 27 played WWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. Groningen had 8.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7.1 and had to travel 138 km.

Away travel138 kmRest days8.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen25%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar52%

Expected goals 1.36 – 2.01

Groningen30%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.48

Groningen25%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar52%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.95

Groningen19%

Draw21%

AZ Alkmaar60%

Expected goals 1.21 – 2.25

Groningen25%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar51%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.90

Over 2.5 65% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 14

Team strength

Groningen

AZ Alkmaar

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

41 AttackIn forecast 52

21 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

AZ Alkmaar

1.37 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.74

1.37 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

78% Scored inContext 93%

26% Clean sheetsContext 22%

15.07 ShotsContext 15.04

5.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

38% On target shareContext 38%

8.92 Shots in the boxContext 9.96

58% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.91 OffsidesContext 1.76

10.89 Shots allowedContext 12.22

4.27 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

2.88 BlocksContext 3.54

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.08

66% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 53%

413 PassesContext 445

331 Accurate passesContext 365

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.41 FoulsContext 10.07

9.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.07

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.07

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 13.90

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

34% On target shareContext 39%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

59% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 15%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.40 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.40 BlocksContext 3.10

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

68% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

410 PassesContext 459

326 Accurate passesContext 380

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.03

9.90 FoulsContext 10.80

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km169 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AZ Alkmaar

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Mar	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	169 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

21H. Jurjus(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

14J. Schreuders 18T. Land 8T. de Jonge 10Y. Taha

17D. van der Werff 26T. van Bergen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41J. Zoet(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 30D. Kasius

26K. Smit 6P. Koopmeiners

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 10S. Mijnans 17I. Jensen

9T. Parrott

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen-0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
AZ Alkmaar+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.38points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-5
Scored: 1.54
Conceded: 1.08

AZ Alkmaar · Away 1.36points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-7
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H
Ajax	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
FC Volendam	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Twente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Utrecht	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 AW 4–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	L 1–2 AL 1–5 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	L 3–4 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	D 3–3 H
Telstar	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 4–0 HW 2–1 A
Points	35 of 78 · 1.35 per game	39 of 78 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Groningen wins1 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins

Goals per game0.33 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

10 Aug 2025AZ Alkmaar4–1Groningen
11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar3–0Groningen
25 Aug 2024Groningen0–0AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.37	1.74
Conceded per game	1.37	1.56
Match goals	2.74	3.30	3.36
Over 1.5	89%	81%
Over 2.5	52%	67%	65%
Over 3.5	22%	48%
Both teams scored	56%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	26%	22%
Failed to score	22%	7%
Games	27	27

	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.90	3.36
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	65%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.12	5.44
Corners conceded	4.65	4.33
Match total	10.77	9.77	10.26
Over 8.5	73% 19/26	74% 20/27
Over 9.5	50% 13/26	41% 11/27
Over 10.5	42% 11/26	30% 8/27
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.11
Opponent cards	1.59	1.59
Match total	3.37	3.70	3.40
Over 3.5	44% 12/27	48% 13/27
Over 4.5	22% 6/27	26% 7/27

	Groningen	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.10
Corners conceded	5.20	4.00
Match total	11.70	9.10	10.26
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.60
Opponent cards	1.10	1.80
Match total	3.00	3.40	3.40
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.23

Red cards0.43league 0.17

Cards 5+36%league 27%

Fouls25.4league 21.4

Penalties0.29league 0.24

Home wins29%league 45%

Groningen3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W5 Dec 25A · Excelsior2–03
L3 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–63
D31 Aug 24A · Almere City FC1–12

AZ Alkmaar1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Aug 25A · FC Volendam2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.