Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen
10th · 35 pts · 27 played
LLLWD
First leg1–4
3–0Full time
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 42 pts · 27 played
WWLLW
Groningen25.3%fair odds 3.96
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.43
AZ Alkmaar52.1%fair odds 1.92
Expected goals1.36 – 2.01total 3.36
Likeliest score1–19.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · AZ Alkmaar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns AZ Alkmaar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%10.08
- 1–29.5%10.57
- 0–27.0%14.32
- 0–16.5%15.50
- 2–26.4%15.60
- 2–16.4%15.67
- 1–36.3%15.79
- 0–34.7%21.39
- 2–34.3%23.30
- 1–04.2%23.87
Winning margin
3.8%
Groningen by 3+
fair 26.32
7.2%
Groningen by 2
fair 13.81
14.2%
Groningen by 1
fair 7.03
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.43
21.3%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.69
15.9%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 6.29
14.9%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 6.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Groningen goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
AZ Alkmaar goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 25.3% | 25.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.4% | -0.8 pp |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 52.1% | 51.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 61.8% | +3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.8% | 62.2% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.36 | 1.29 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 2.01 | 1.90 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win25.3%3.96
- Draw22.6%4.43
- AZ Alkmaar win52.1%1.92
- Double chance Groningen or draw47.9%2.09
- Double chance Groningen or AZ Alkmaar77.4%1.29
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw74.7%1.34
- Draw no bet Groningen32.6%3.06
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar67.4%1.48
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.4%1.17
- Over 2.565.3%1.53
- Over 3.543.4%2.31
- Over 4.524.9%4.01
- Under 1.514.6%6.85
- Under 2.534.7%2.88
- Under 3.556.6%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes64.8%1.54
- No35.2%2.84
- Yes and over 2.554.8%1.82
- Groningen win and yes15.8%6.33
- Draw and yes18.6%5.37
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes30.3%3.30
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.574.2%1.35
- Groningen over 1.539.3%2.55
- Groningen over 2.515.6%6.42
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.586.6%1.15
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.559.6%1.68
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.532.6%3.07
- Groningen clean sheet13.4%7.45
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet25.8%3.88
- Groningen win to nil9.5%10.58
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil21.8%4.58
Handicap
- Groningen −1.511.0%9.06
- Groningen −2.53.8%26.32
- AZ Alkmaar +1.589.0%1.12
- AZ Alkmaar +2.596.2%1.04
- AZ Alkmaar −1.530.8%3.24
- Groningen +1.569.2%1.45
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored250
Favourite won51.6%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right62.0%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 94 | 44.9% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.9% | 45.6% |
| 60–70% | 32 | 64.3% | 65.6% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.3% | 85.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 201 of 250 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5918 | 0.5857 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.7% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 201 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 250 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.