Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. Groningen had 14.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 14.8 and had to travel 85 km.
Away travel85 kmRest days14.1 · 14.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Groningen50%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle25%
Groningen48%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle26%
Groningen49%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle26%
Groningen42%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle31%
Groningen49%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 30
Team strength
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
41
AttackIn forecast
17
21
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenPEC Zwolle
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.33
ShotsContext
8.67
6.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
44%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.17
60%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.10
11.42
Shots allowedContext
16.58
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.08
2.55
BlocksContext
3.67
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
65%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
385
PassesContext
355
304
Accurate passesContext
279
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.42
FoulsContext
10.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.20
ShotsContext
8.70
6.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
41%
On target shareContext
32%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
59%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
17.20
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.44
BlocksContext
3.60
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
58%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
379
PassesContext
352
301
Accurate passesContext
276
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.62
11.60
FoulsContext
9.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel85 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 85 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
7S. Shoretire
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- PEC Zwolle-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | L 2–8 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 13 of 27 · 1.44 per game | 12 of 27 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Groningen wins1 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 18 May 2025PEC Zwolle2–0Groningen
- 8 Dec 2024Groningen0–0PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.42 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 2.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 7.73 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 9% 1/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 3.84 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.90 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.28
Red cards0.30league 0.22
Cards 5+27%league 30%
Fouls23.0league 21.8
Penalties0.37league 0.28
Home wins47%league 48%
Groningen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D29 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–14
- L2 Feb 25A · Sparta Rotterdam0–11
- L15 Dec 24A · Twente0–22
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L4 Oct 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–41
- L24 Nov 24A · Ajax0–21
- L24 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–72
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen12 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle11 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
10
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 11 · conceded 25
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
10
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
