Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen49.6%fair odds 2.02
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
PEC Zwolle24.9%fair odds 4.01
Expected goals1.67 – 1.12total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · PEC Zwolle → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns PEC Zwolle goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.27
- 1–09.6%10.38
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 2–08.6%11.68
- 0–06.7%14.84
- 1–26.4%15.54
- 0–16.3%15.97
- 2–25.4%18.60
- 3–15.3%18.71
- 3–04.8%20.97
Winning margin
11.6%
Groningen by 3+
fair 8.66
15.3%
Groningen by 2
fair 6.52
22.7%
Groningen by 1
fair 4.40
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
15.0%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 6.65
6.9%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 14.51
3.0%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 33.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Groningen goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
PEC Zwolle goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 49.6% | 49.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.8% | -0.3 pp |
| PEC Zwolle win | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 51.8% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.3% | 54.6% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.67 | 1.64 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 1.12 | 1.11 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win49.6%2.02
- Draw25.5%3.93
- PEC Zwolle win24.9%4.01
- Double chance Groningen or draw75.1%1.33
- Double chance Groningen or PEC Zwolle74.5%1.34
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw50.4%1.98
- Draw no bet Groningen66.6%1.50
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle33.4%2.99
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.62
- Under 1.522.6%4.42
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.3%1.81
- No44.7%2.24
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.31
- Groningen win and yes23.8%4.21
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- PEC Zwolle win and yes12.9%7.78
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.581.2%1.23
- Groningen over 1.549.8%2.01
- Groningen over 2.523.5%4.25
- PEC Zwolle over 0.567.4%1.48
- PEC Zwolle over 1.530.9%3.24
- PEC Zwolle over 2.510.4%9.63
- Groningen clean sheet32.6%3.07
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet18.8%5.32
- Groningen win to nil25.9%3.87
- PEC Zwolle win to nil12.1%8.29
Handicap
- Groningen −1.526.9%3.72
- Groningen −2.511.6%8.66
- PEC Zwolle +1.573.1%1.37
- PEC Zwolle +2.588.4%1.13
- PEC Zwolle −1.59.9%10.13
- Groningen +1.590.1%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored116
Favourite won50.9%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right67.2%
BTTS called right62.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.6% | 42.5% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 63.9% | 68.8% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 93 of 116 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5781 | 0.5614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 49.5% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 93 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 116 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.