Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 26). Groningen had 8 days of rest, Twente 7.1 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Groningen38%
Draw26%
Twente36%
Groningen37%
Draw27%
Twente35%
Groningen37%
Draw27%
Twente36%
Groningen31%
Draw26%
Twente43%
Groningen38%
Draw27%
Twente35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 45
Team strength
Groningen
Twente
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
41
AttackIn forecast
41
21
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenTwente
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.40
ShotsContext
17.40
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
45%
On target shareContext
36%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
56%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.67
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
56%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
387
PassesContext
449
304
Accurate passesContext
361
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.80
FoulsContext
11.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.40
ShotsContext
17.40
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
45%
On target shareContext
36%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
56%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.67
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
56%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
387
PassesContext
449
304
Accurate passesContext
361
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.80
FoulsContext
11.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km503 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel113 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 503 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Twente-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
Twente · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 H | W 5–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Groningen wins1 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2025Groningen1–1Twente
- 15 Dec 2024Twente2–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Groningen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.80 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Groningen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.80 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.33
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+31%league 32%
Fouls22.5league 22.2
Penalties0.22league 0.27
Home wins51%league 49%
Groningen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–50
Twente5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle0–11
- W4 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam2–00
- L21 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–14
- D11 Nov 23H · NEC Nijmegen3–31
- L24 Sep 23A · Waalwijk0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
