Guimaraes vs Casa Pia – 11 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 33 Mon, May 11 · 20:15 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 7th · 42 pts · 32 played WDWWL

0–1Full time

Casa Pia 16th · 26 pts · 32 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 18). Guimaraes usually keep the ball (52% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Guimaraes had 7 days of rest, Casa Pia 8.2 and had to travel.

Rest days7 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

Guimaraes57%

Draw25%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.88

Guimaraes57%

Draw24%

Casa Pia19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97

Guimaraes57%

Draw25%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.88

Guimaraes49%

Draw27%

Casa Pia24%

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.99

Guimaraes57%

Draw24%

Casa Pia19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.96

Over 2.5 48% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 91

Team strength

Guimaraes

Casa Pia

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

28 AttackIn forecast 13

39 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Casa Pia

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.91

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

69% Scored inContext 53%

31% Clean sheetsContext 19%

12.94 ShotsContext 8.22

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.87

30% On target shareContext 33%

7.16 Shots in the boxContext 4.84

56% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.88 Shots allowedContext 13.38

4.47 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

2.96 BlocksContext 3.97

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.74

69% Save rateContext 61%

51% PossessionIn forecast 41%

382 PassesContext 297

314 Accurate passesContext 219

82% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.67

14.22 FoulsContext 15.53

14.63 Fouls sufferedContext 13.56

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 2.91

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 0.79

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

80% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.50 ShotsContext 8.20

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.30

36% On target shareContext 28%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 4.90

55% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 5%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.88

9.40 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.63 BlocksContext 4.13

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

65% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 38%

422 PassesContext 274

352 Accurate passesContext 192

83% Pass accuracyContext 70%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.62

13.50 FoulsContext 17.00

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km622 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Casa Pia

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 May	8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	622 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

82Francisco Dias 26R. Abascal 4Óscar Rivas 66T. Strata

16Beni 30Gonçalo Nogueira

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 88M. Nogueira

11Gustavo Silva

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 3Kaly 4João Goulart

75Pedro Rosas 42S. Pérez 80L. Ofori 19Kevin Prieto

11João Marques 10Dailon Livramento 72Gaizka Larrazabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.75points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.13

Casa Pia · Away 0.75points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-10
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Casa Pia
Sporting CP	L 1–5 AL 1–4 H	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H
Rio Ave	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
GIL Vicente	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
AVS	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H	D 3–3 HW 2–0 A
Tondela	W 5–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Benfica	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Famalicao	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Santa Clara	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H
SC Braga	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Estrela	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–4 AL 3–5 H
Arouca	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 HW 2–0 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Estoril	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 2–1 HL 0–4 A
Nacional	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Points	41 of 93 · 1.32 per game	25 of 93 · 0.81 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Guimaraes wins4 draws2 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game0.29 – 0.57 Over 2.50% Both scored14% Clean sheets57% · 71%

28 Dec 2025Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes
1 Mar 2025Guimaraes1–0Casa Pia
28 Sep 2024Casa Pia1–1Guimaraes
24 Feb 2024Guimaraes0–2Casa Pia
23 Sep 2023Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes
19 Feb 2023Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.91
Conceded per game	1.50	1.75
Match goals	2.72	2.66	2.61
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	47%	47%	48%
Over 3.5	25%	31%
Both teams scored	44%	47%	49%
Clean sheets	31%	19%
Failed to score	31%	47%
Games	32	32

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.50
Match goals	3.10	1.90	2.61
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	3.83
Corners conceded	3.53	5.80
Match total	7.96	9.63	9.36
Over 8.5	43% 13/30	60% 18/30
Over 9.5	33% 10/30	47% 14/30
Over 10.5	20% 6/30	33% 10/30
Cards
Cards	2.38	3.00
Opponent cards	2.69	2.53
Match total	5.07	5.53	5.11
Over 3.5	66% 21/32	84% 27/32
Over 4.5	63% 20/32	72% 23/32

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.60
Corners conceded	4.13	6.00
Match total	8.38	10.60	9.36
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	3.80	5.00	5.11
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.89league 4.83

Red cards0.21league 0.24

Cards 5+57%league 58%

Fouls28.2league 26.8

Penalties0.29league 0.43

Home wins40%league 41%

Guimaraes9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.3.6 · 3.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L21 Mar 26A · Benfica0–31
L26 Jan 25A · Estoril0–13
D6 Oct 24H · Boavista2–24
W15 Sep 24A · SC Braga2–03
W27 Apr 24H · Boavista1–03

Casa Pia2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 May 25H · SC Braga2–10
W6 Nov 22A · SC Braga1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.