Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 42). Guimaraes had 16 days of rest, FC Porto 14.1 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days16 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Guimaraes23%
Draw25%
FC Porto52%
Guimaraes23%
Draw25%
FC Porto52%
Guimaraes23%
Draw25%
FC Porto52%
Guimaraes17%
Draw23%
FC Porto59%
Guimaraes23%
Draw25%
FC Porto52%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.62
- Matches 13
Team strength
Guimaraes
FC Porto
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
28
AttackIn forecast
74
39
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesFC Porto
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.12
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.24
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.47
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
59%
Scored inContext
94%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
76%
12.41
ShotsContext
14.47
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.65
28%
On target shareContext
39%
6.53
Shots in the boxContext
10.24
54%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.76
Shots allowedContext
8.88
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
3.29
BlocksContext
3.29
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.92
74%
Save rateContext
92%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
362
PassesContext
459
296
Accurate passesContext
392
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.00
14.00
FoulsContext
13.35
15.47
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.54
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
60%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
30%
On target shareContext
42%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
57%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.29
3.50
BlocksContext
3.30
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
79%
Save rateContext
93%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
358
PassesContext
510
294
Accurate passesContext
441
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.10
FoulsContext
12.70
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel42 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
17O. Lebedenko
3M. Nóbrega
26R. Abascal
66T. Strata
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
19O. Camara
90A. Ndoye
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
52Martim Fernandes
4J. Kiwior
3Thiago Silva
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-2
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.44
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-0
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 0.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| AVS | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Arouca | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 25 of 48 · 1.56 per game | 46 of 48 · 2.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins1 draws5 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.57 – 2.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets0% · 57%
- 11 Aug 2025FC Porto3–0Guimaraes
- 24 Feb 2025FC Porto1–1Guimaraes
- 21 Sep 2024Guimaraes0–3FC Porto
- 7 Apr 2024FC Porto1–2Guimaraes
- 11 Nov 2023Guimaraes1–2FC Porto
- 27 May 2023FC Porto3–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 2.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 53% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 24% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 76% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 6% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Guimaraes | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 7.71 | 8.13 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 3/17 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.24 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 5.65 | 5.00 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Guimaraes | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.14 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.50 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.38league 5.00
Red cards1.00league 0.29
Cards 5+69%league 59%
Fouls26.1league 27.3
Penalties0.62league 0.44
Home wins31%league 38%
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 25H · Santa Clara2–14
FC Porto1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Oct 25A · Moreirense2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes17 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
FC Porto17 games · scored 36 · conceded 4
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
31-45
9
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
4
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
