Guimaraes vs Moreirense – 20 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 20 · 15:30 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 14th · 4 pts · 6 played LWLDL

1–1Full time

Moreirense 13th · 7 pts · 6 played LWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Guimaraes. Guimaraes had 7.8 days of rest, Moreirense 5.8 and had to travel 7 km.

Away travel7 kmRest days7.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Guimaraes55%

Draw24%

Moreirense21%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.97

Guimaraes45%

Draw25%

Moreirense29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Guimaraes55%

Draw24%

Moreirense21%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.97

Guimaraes47%

Draw26%

Moreirense27%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.09

Guimaraes54%

Draw24%

Moreirense22%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.00

Over 2.5 50% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

RefereeSérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Team strength

Guimaraes

Moreirense

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

28 AttackIn forecast 17

39 DefenceIn forecast 27

23 Form indexContext 40

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Moreirense

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.17

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.33

0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-1.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.84

50% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 17%

19.33 ShotsContext 7.33

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.83

23% On target shareContext 39%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 4.00

58% Box shareContext 55%

3% ConversionContext 16%

1.40 OffsidesContext —

7.17 Shots allowedContext 15.67

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

2.40 BlocksContext 3.67

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

62% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 36%

438 PassesContext 321

358 Accurate passesContext 239

82% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.40

15.33 FoulsContext 14.17

9.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.61

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

50% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.80 ShotsContext 8.60

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

24% On target shareContext 36%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 4.80

57% Box shareContext 56%

4% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.00

7.80 Shots allowedContext 14.10

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

1.89 BlocksContext 3.80

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

63% Save rateContext 57%

57% PossessionIn forecast 45%

445 PassesContext 386

365 Accurate passesContext 310

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.53

13.40 FoulsContext 13.50

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes LWLDL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km186 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts
W23 AugH · Nacional1–01.8 xPts
L14 AugA · Sporting CP2–30.4 xPts

Moreirense LWLLW

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel7 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 40 · 6 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected

W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts
W30 AugA · Casa Pia1–01.3 xPts
L16 AugA · Arouca0–41.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep	5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	7 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	186 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	19.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

44L. Doucet 8Gonçalo Nogueira

7O. Camara 10Alan 11Gustavo Silva

9A. Jakupovic

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 0.33

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Casa Pia	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Arouca	L 0–1 H	L 0–4 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Guimaraes wins1 draws2 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.83 – 0.83 Over 2.517% Both scored17% Clean sheets50% · 33%

30 Jan 2026Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
23 Aug 2025Moreirense2–0Guimaraes
30 Mar 2025Moreirense2–2Guimaraes
3 Nov 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
30 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
5 Nov 2023Moreirense1–0Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.17
Conceded per game	1.17	2.17
Match goals	1.83	3.33	2.68
Over 1.5	33%	83%
Over 2.5	33%	83%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	50%	33%
Games	6	6

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	2.10
Match goals	2.20	3.20	2.68
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	6.17	2.50
Corners conceded	3.33	5.50
Match total	9.50	8.00	8.81
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	2.83	3.17
Opponent cards	3.00	1.83
Match total	5.83	5.00	4.35
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	3.10
Corners conceded	3.20	5.00
Match total	9.10	8.10	8.81
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.90
Opponent cards	2.70	2.00
Match total	5.60	4.90	4.35
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.