Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Guimaraes. Guimaraes had 8.8 days of rest, Nacional 7 and had to travel 1,237 km.
Away travel1,237 kmRest days8.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Guimaraes52%
Draw24%
Nacional24%
Guimaraes48%
Draw25%
Nacional27%
Guimaraes52%
Draw24%
Nacional24%
Guimaraes45%
Draw25%
Nacional30%
Guimaraes52%
Draw24%
Nacional24%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 18
Team strength
Guimaraes
Nacional
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
28
AttackIn forecast
15
39
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesNacional
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.00
ShotsContext
15.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
17%
On target shareContext
23%
13.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
79%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
4.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
1.50
BlocksContext
4.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
50%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
447
PassesContext
412
378
Accurate passesContext
342
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.10
15.00
FoulsContext
13.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.10
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
26%
On target shareContext
36%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
61%
Box shareContext
52%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.14
8.50
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.11
BlocksContext
4.80
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
68%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
429
PassesContext
355
358
Accurate passesContext
284
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.60
FoulsContext
14.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
LL
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 0 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Aug | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,237 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 1,927 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
11Gustavo Silva
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
24A. Ndoye
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
38Zé Vitor
6Matheus Dias
34Léo Santos
7M. Jensen
22Filipe Soares
28Liziero
52Wesley Gasolina
10Daniel Júnior
8Miguel Baeza
99Pablo Ruan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nacional · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Guimaraes wins1 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 16 May 2026Nacional2–0Guimaraes
- 2 Jan 2026Guimaraes2–1Nacional
- 3 May 2025Nacional1–2Guimaraes
- 23 Dec 2024Guimaraes2–2Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Guimaraes | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.10 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 9.50 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 5.00 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Guimaraes | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 11.50 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.10 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.94league 4.55
Red cards0.33league 0.25
Cards 5+78%league 45%
Fouls27.7league 25.5
Penalties0.50league 0.30
Home wins28%league 35%
Guimaraes2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Dec 25A · Rio Ave1–04
- W16 Aug 25H · Estoril3–24
Nacional3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L21 Mar 26A · Famalicao0–13
- L1 Feb 25H · Arouca1–26
- L7 Dec 24A · GIL Vicente1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Nacional2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
