Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 25). Guimaraes had 6.2 days of rest, Santa Clara 7.2 and had to travel 1,542 km.
Away travel1,542 kmRest days6.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Guimaraes55%
Draw25%
Santa Clara20%
Guimaraes55%
Draw24%
Santa Clara20%
Guimaraes55%
Draw25%
Santa Clara20%
Guimaraes48%
Draw27%
Santa Clara26%
Guimaraes55%
Draw24%
Santa Clara20%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
29
39
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesSanta Clara
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
57%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.71
ShotsContext
11.29
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
27%
On target shareContext
33%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
50%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.86
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
3.00
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
368
PassesContext
366
300
Accurate passesContext
298
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.86
FoulsContext
13.71
15.43
Fouls sufferedContext
16.43
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
60%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.29
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
26%
On target shareContext
33%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
55%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.30
Shots allowedContext
8.86
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.67
BlocksContext
2.33
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
387
PassesContext
366
319
Accurate passesContext
298
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.20
FoulsContext
13.71
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.43
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km580 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,542 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,542 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 580 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.8 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
20Samu
16Beni
22Fabio Blanco
88M. Nogueira
48N. Saviolo
7Nélson Oliveira
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
32MT
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
3Matheus Pereira
6Adriano
8Pedro Ferreira
42Lucas Soares
28Luquinhas
70Vinícius Lopes
29Wendel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Santa Clara · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Guimaraes wins0 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025Guimaraes2–0Santa Clara
- 10 Nov 2024Santa Clara1–0Guimaraes
- 5 Mar 2023Santa Clara1–3Guimaraes
- 9 Sep 2022Guimaraes1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 1.86 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Guimaraes | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 1.86 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 6.71 | 8.25 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 6.42 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Guimaraes | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.25 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 6.10 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 5.06
Red cards1.00league 0.25
Cards 5+83%league 64%
Fouls30.2league 27.7
Penalties1.00league 0.45
Home wins17%league 36%
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes7 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Santa Clara7 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
