Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 19 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 18th · 0 pts · 3 played
2–1Full time
1.FC Köln 12th · 4 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Hamburger SV were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1.FC Köln. Hamburger SV had 6 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 6.9 and had to travel 357 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel357 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Hamburger SV42%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln33%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.34
Hamburger SV44%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln30%
Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20
Hamburger SV42%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln34%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.34
Hamburger SV35%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln40%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.51
Hamburger SV43%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln33%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.39
Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
19°COvercast
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 18 km/h
  • Humidity 71%
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.36
  • Matches 72

Team strength

Hamburger SV1.FC Köln
34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
37 AttackIn forecast 36
43 DefenceIn forecast 36
25 Form indexContext 50
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SV1.FC Köln
0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
4.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
2.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16
-0.73 Goals minus xGContext -0.48
0% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
8.67 ShotsContext 17.00
2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67
31% On target shareContext 33%
4.67 Shots in the boxContext 12.00
53% Box shareContext 70%
0% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
18.67 Shots allowedContext 17.00
6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
3.33 BlocksContext 4.33
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
45% Save rateContext 59%
45% PossessionIn forecast 43%
397 PassesContext 395
323 Accurate passesContext 329
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.30 Team ratingContext 6.72
15.33 FoulsContext 9.33
14.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
0.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79
-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
60% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.40 ShotsContext 15.50
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60
33% On target shareContext 36%
6.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.20
58% Box shareContext 73%
8% ConversionContext 10%
1.57 OffsidesContext 1.71
16.40 Shots allowedContext 13.80
6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90
3.44 BlocksContext 3.50
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
60% Save rateContext 53%
43% PossessionIn forecast 46%
362 PassesContext 403
290 Accurate passesContext 336
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.72
12.50 FoulsContext 8.10
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 7.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 0 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
  • L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts
  • L29 AugA · Borussia Dortmund0–20.5 xPts
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel357 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 50 · 4 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts
  • W29 AugH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hamburger SV 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Sep6.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways588 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2122

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari 23J. Torunarigha 24N. Capaldo
3D. Møller Wolfe 21N. Remberg 6A. Sambi Lokonga 7Z. El Ouahdi
11A. Grønbæk 20Fábio Vieira
9T. Moffi
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Schwäbe(G)
14G. Mensah 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 17A. Castro-Montes
6E. Skhiri 5T. Krauß
10S. El Mala 47M. Moore 37L. Maina
27T. Dallinga
+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hamburger SV Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Hamburger SV+0.8 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • 1.FC Köln-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.00
1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins1 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 14 Mar 2026Hamburger SV1–11.FC Köln
  • 2 Nov 20251.FC Köln4–1Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Hamburger SV1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 0.001.67
Conceded per game 4.002.33
Match goals 4.004.00 2.90
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 67%67% 55%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 0%100% 58%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games33
Hamburger SV1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 0.901.60
Conceded per game 2.602.30
Match goals 3.503.90 2.90
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 70%80% 55%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 60%100% 58%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hamburger SV1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.007.33
Corners conceded5.007.33
Match total9.0014.6611.41
Over 8.567% 2/3100% 3/3
Over 9.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Over 10.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Cards
Cards1.331.67
Opponent cards2.331.33
Match total3.663.003.26
Over 3.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 4.50% 0/30% 0/3
Hamburger SV1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won3.906.38
Corners conceded6.005.75
Match total9.9012.1311.41
Over 8.580% 8/1088% 7/8
Over 9.560% 6/1088% 7/8
Over 10.540% 4/1063% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.901.80
Opponent cards2.901.90
Match total4.803.703.26
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.81league 3.18
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+38%league 18%
Fouls22.3league 22.4
Penalties0.36league 0.14
Home wins50%league 54%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 3
  • L21 Mar 26A · Borussia Dortmund2–33
1.FC Köln10 with this referee
Record2-4-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1
  • D17 Apr 26A · FC St. Pauli1–11
  • L28 Sep 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–22
  • L20 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 980–20
  • D11 Nov 23A · VfL Bochum1–11
  • L26 Aug 23H · VfL Wolfsburg1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hamburger SV3 games · scored 0 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
3 76-90
1.FC Köln3 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 26
1 1 0-15
7 16-30
2 5 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 2 61-75
7 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
3 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
4 10 61-75
6 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Union Berlin 70 Werder Bremen FC Augsburg 32 Borussia Mönchengladbach FSV Mainz 05 34 Eintracht Frankfurt SC Freiburg 22 Hamburger SV 1.FC Köln 21 VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund 01 Bayer Leverkusen RB Leipzig 20 FC Schalke 04 SV Elversberg 00 SC Paderborn 07 1899 Hoffenheim 31