Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
14th · 15 pts · 14 played
DLWWL
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 24 pts · 14 played
WWDLW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 34). Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 7 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Hamburger SV28%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt47%
Hamburger SV28%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt46%
Hamburger SV28%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt47%
Hamburger SV22%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
Hamburger SV28%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt46%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 95
Team strength
Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurt
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
37
AttackIn forecast
54
43
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurt
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.07
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
57%
Scored inContext
86%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.57
ShotsContext
12.57
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.54
Shots in the boxContext
8.36
65%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.54
OffsidesContext
1.82
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.21
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.69
BlocksContext
2.14
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.42
63%
Save rateContext
52%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
400
PassesContext
501
331
Accurate passesContext
419
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.43
FoulsContext
9.64
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
9.86
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.40
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
37%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
71%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.78
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.33
BlocksContext
3.40
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
58%
Save rateContext
54%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
411
PassesContext
470
340
Accurate passesContext
388
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.30
FoulsContext
9.70
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel392 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 968 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
28M. Muheim
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
2W. Mikelbrencis
6A. Sambi Lokonga
21N. Remberg
24N. Capaldo
45F. Balde
11R. Königsdörffer
14Rayan Philippe
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
5A. Amenda
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
21N. Brown
18M. Dahoud
16H. Larsson
13R. Kristensen
19J. Bahoya
20R. Doan
7A. Knauff
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 2.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 4–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | L 0–6 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 3–4 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 6–4 A |
| Points | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game | 23 of 36 · 1.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 4.14 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 64% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.64 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 7.92 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 4/14 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 4/14 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.78 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 12/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 8.26 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 2.60 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.91
Red cards0.19league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls22.1league 21.2
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins53%league 47%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L13 Sep 25A · Bayern München0–52
Eintracht Frankfurt4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 3
- W29 Sep 24A · Holstein Kiel4–23
- L17 Mar 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–32
- D18 Feb 24A · SC Freiburg3–30
- L14 Aug 21A · Borussia Dortmund2–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV14 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt14 games · scored 29 · conceded 29
2
6
0-15
5
1
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
