Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV
14th · 15 pts · 14 played
DLWWL
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 24 pts · 14 played
WWDLW
Hamburger SV28.1%fair odds 3.56
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94
Eintracht Frankfurt46.5%fair odds 2.15
Expected goals1.24 – 1.66total 2.90
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.38
- 1–29.4%10.65
- 0–18.5%11.73
- 0–27.6%13.23
- 2–17.0%14.20
- 1–06.2%16.02
- 0–06.1%16.37
- 2–25.8%17.15
- 1–35.2%19.28
- 2–04.2%23.54
Winning margin
3.9%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 25.50
8.0%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 12.46
16.2%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 6.19
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.94
21.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.60
14.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 7.00
10.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 9.55
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Hamburger SV goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 28.1% | 28.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46.5% | 45.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 51.3% | +4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 55.1% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.24 | 1.17 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.66 | 1.55 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win28.1%3.56
- Draw25.4%3.94
- Eintracht Frankfurt win46.5%2.15
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw53.5%1.87
- Double chance Hamburger SV or Eintracht Frankfurt74.6%1.34
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw71.9%1.39
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV37.7%2.65
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt62.3%1.60
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.4%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.95
- Under 1.520.9%4.79
- Under 2.544.6%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes58.2%1.72
- No41.8%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.2%2.16
- Hamburger SV win and yes15.1%6.61
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes23.7%4.21
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.571.1%1.41
- Hamburger SV over 1.535.3%2.84
- Hamburger SV over 2.513.0%7.71
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.580.9%1.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.549.3%2.03
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.523.1%4.32
- Hamburger SV clean sheet19.1%5.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Hamburger SV win to nil13.0%7.71
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil22.8%4.39
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.511.9%8.37
- Hamburger SV −2.53.9%25.50
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.588.1%1.14
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.596.1%1.04
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.524.8%4.04
- Hamburger SV +1.575.2%1.33
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5408 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.