Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
12th · 30 pts · 27 played
LLWDL
1–1Full time
FC Augsburg
10th · 31 pts · 27 played
WWLLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Augsburg. Hamburger SV had 13.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 12.8 and had to travel 579 km.
Away travel579 kmRest days13.8 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV39%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg36%
Hamburger SV42%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg31%
Hamburger SV41%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg35%
Hamburger SV31%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg44%
Hamburger SV39%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg36%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 73
Team strength
Hamburger SVFC Augsburg
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
37
AttackIn forecast
72
43
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVFC Augsburg
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.85
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
70%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.48
ShotsContext
12.19
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.35
63%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.36
13.67
Shots allowedContext
13.15
4.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
3.58
BlocksContext
4.39
3.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
64%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
391
PassesContext
395
318
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.56
FoulsContext
11.07
12.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.26
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
12.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
41%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
61%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.30
BlocksContext
4.38
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
67%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
373
PassesContext
387
295
Accurate passesContext
308
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.30
FoulsContext
10.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km567 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel579 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 12.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 579 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 567 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
28M. Muheim
20Fábio Vieira
6A. Sambi Lokonga
2W. Mikelbrencis
27P. Otele
11R. Königsdörffer
9R. Glatzel
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
19Robin Fellhauer
27M. Wolf
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.21
FC Augsburg · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-9
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 22 Nov 2025FC Augsburg1–0Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.07 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 59% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.19 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 9.63 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.37 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 4.18 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 19/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 15/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 11.60 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.30 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.73
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls22.6league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins38%league 45%
Hamburger SV2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25A · Union Berlin0–03
- L23 May 22H · Hertha BSC0–20
FC Augsburg5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W8 Mar 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–04
- L7 Oct 23H · SV Darmstadt 981–24
- L5 Nov 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–20
- D27 Feb 22H · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- L4 Dec 21H · VfL Bochum2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV27 games · scored 31 · conceded 40
2
4
0-15
4
7
16-30
8
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
9
76-90
FC Augsburg27 games · scored 33 · conceded 50
3
6
0-15
3
10
16-30
6
10
31-45
9
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
8
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
