Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 12th · 30 pts · 27 played
1–1Full time
FC Augsburg 10th · 31 pts · 27 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Hamburger SV39.1%fair odds 2.56
Draw24.5%fair odds 4.08
FC Augsburg36.4%fair odds 2.75
Expected goals1.63 – 1.57total 3.21
Likeliest score1–111.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FC Augsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Hamburger SV ↓ · FC Augsburg →0123456+
04.65.85.02.61.00.30.1
16.111.08.24.31.70.50.2
25.48.56.73.51.40.40.1
33.04.63.61.90.70.20.1
41.21.91.50.80.30.10.0
50.40.60.50.30.10.00.0
6+0.10.20.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.0%9.12
  • 2–18.5%11.75
  • 1–28.2%12.23
  • 2–26.7%14.97
  • 1–06.1%16.46
  • 0–15.8%17.19
  • 2–05.4%18.46
  • 0–25.0%20.00
  • 3–14.6%21.57
  • 0–04.6%21.71

Winning margin

8.2% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 12.22
11.8% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 8.46
19.1% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 5.23
24.5% Draw fair 4.08
18.3% FC Augsburg by 1 fair 5.45
10.9% FC Augsburg by 2 fair 9.16
7.1% FC Augsburg by 3+ fair 14.04

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+

Hamburger SV goals

19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+

FC Augsburg goals

21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Hamburger SV win 39.1% 38.7% +0.4 pp
Draw 24.5% 25.1% -0.6 pp
FC Augsburg win 36.4% 36.1% +0.2 pp
Over 2.5 62.1% 59.3% +2.8 pp
Both teams score 64.3% 62.2% +2.2 pp
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.63 1.57 +0.07
Expected goals FC Augsburg 1.57 1.51 +0.06

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Hamburger SV win39.1%2.56
  • Draw24.5%4.08
  • FC Augsburg win36.4%2.75
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw63.6%1.57
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or FC Augsburg75.5%1.32
  • Double chance FC Augsburg or draw60.9%1.64
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV51.8%1.93
  • Draw no bet FC Augsburg48.2%2.08

Goals

  • Over 0.595.4%1.05
  • Over 1.583.5%1.20
  • Over 2.562.1%1.61
  • Over 3.539.9%2.51
  • Over 4.522.0%4.54
  • Under 1.516.5%6.06
  • Under 2.537.9%2.64
  • Under 3.560.1%1.66

Both teams to score

  • Yes64.3%1.55
  • No35.7%2.80
  • Yes and over 2.553.4%1.87
  • Hamburger SV win and yes22.9%4.36
  • Draw and yes19.9%5.03
  • FC Augsburg win and yes21.5%4.65

Team goals

  • Hamburger SV over 0.580.5%1.24
  • Hamburger SV over 1.548.6%2.06
  • Hamburger SV over 2.522.6%4.43
  • FC Augsburg over 0.579.2%1.26
  • FC Augsburg over 1.546.6%2.15
  • FC Augsburg over 2.520.9%4.78
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet20.8%4.81
  • FC Augsburg clean sheet19.5%5.13
  • Hamburger SV win to nil16.2%6.18
  • FC Augsburg win to nil14.9%6.71

Handicap

  • Hamburger SV −1.520.0%5.00
  • Hamburger SV −2.58.2%12.22
  • FC Augsburg +1.580.0%1.25
  • FC Augsburg +2.591.8%1.09
  • FC Augsburg −1.518.0%5.54
  • Hamburger SV +1.582.0%1.22

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored243 Favourite won57.2% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right60.1% BTTS called right56.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3238.3%37.5%
40–50%7544.9%46.7%
50–60%6655.2%62.1%
60–70%3964.5%69.2%
70–80%2074.1%75.0%
80%+1186.3%81.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 196 of 243 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54930.5458
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.3%
Favourite won58.7%58.2%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 196 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.