Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 25 · 17:45 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Heerenveen 8th · 44 pts · 30 played
First leg0–2 2–1Full time
Fortuna Sittard 12th · 36 pts · 30 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Heerenveen57.9%fair odds 1.73
Draw20.9%fair odds 4.79
Fortuna Sittard21.2%fair odds 4.71
Expected goals2.23 – 1.30total 3.53
Likeliest score2–19.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Heerenveen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Heerenveen ↓ · Fortuna Sittard →0123456+
03.43.42.51.10.40.10.0
16.18.95.52.40.80.20.1
27.39.56.22.70.90.20.1
35.47.04.62.00.60.20.0
43.03.92.61.10.40.10.0
51.31.71.10.50.20.00.0
6+0.70.90.60.30.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heerenveen goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.5%10.57
  • 1–18.9%11.18
  • 2–07.3%13.78
  • 3–17.0%14.22
  • 2–26.2%16.20
  • 1–06.1%16.50
  • 1–25.5%18.06
  • 3–05.4%18.55
  • 3–24.6%21.81
  • 4–13.9%25.53

Winning margin

19.1% Heerenveen by 3+ fair 5.24
17.4% Heerenveen by 2 fair 5.75
21.4% Heerenveen by 1 fair 4.67
20.9% Draw fair 4.79
12.3% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 8.11
6.0% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 16.78
2.9% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 34.11

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
9%1
19%2
21%3
19%4
28%5+

Heerenveen goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+

Fortuna Sittard goals

27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Heerenveen win 57.9% 57.1% +0.8 pp
Draw 20.9% 21.3% -0.4 pp
Fortuna Sittard win 21.2% 21.6% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 68.5% 67.3% +1.3 pp
Both teams score 65.5% 64.7% +0.8 pp
Expected goals Heerenveen 2.23 2.18 +0.05
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.30 1.29 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Heerenveen win57.9%1.73
  • Draw20.9%4.79
  • Fortuna Sittard win21.2%4.71
  • Double chance Heerenveen or draw78.8%1.27
  • Double chance Heerenveen or Fortuna Sittard79.1%1.26
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw42.1%2.37
  • Draw no bet Heerenveen73.2%1.37
  • Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard26.8%3.73

Goals

  • Over 0.596.6%1.03
  • Over 1.587.2%1.15
  • Over 2.568.5%1.46
  • Over 3.547.0%2.13
  • Over 4.528.1%3.56
  • Under 1.512.8%7.82
  • Under 2.531.5%3.18
  • Under 3.553.0%1.89

Both teams to score

  • Yes65.5%1.53
  • No34.5%2.90
  • Yes and over 2.556.5%1.77
  • Heerenveen win and yes34.1%2.93
  • Draw and yes17.5%5.71
  • Fortuna Sittard win and yes13.8%7.23

Team goals

  • Heerenveen over 0.589.2%1.12
  • Heerenveen over 1.565.2%1.53
  • Heerenveen over 2.538.5%2.60
  • Fortuna Sittard over 0.572.9%1.37
  • Fortuna Sittard over 1.537.5%2.67
  • Fortuna Sittard over 2.514.4%6.95
  • Heerenveen clean sheet27.1%3.68
  • Fortuna Sittard clean sheet10.8%9.29
  • Heerenveen win to nil23.8%4.21
  • Fortuna Sittard win to nil7.4%13.52

Handicap

  • Heerenveen −1.536.5%2.74
  • Heerenveen −2.519.1%5.24
  • Fortuna Sittard +1.563.5%1.57
  • Fortuna Sittard +2.580.9%1.24
  • Fortuna Sittard −1.58.9%11.25
  • Heerenveen +1.591.1%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored274 Favourite won51.8% Avg chance given to result41.2% 1X2 Brier0.586 Over 2.5 called right62.0% BTTS called right62.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4138.0%34.1%
40–50%10244.9%46.1%
50–60%6755.1%47.8%
60–70%3564.5%68.6%
70–80%2174.3%85.7%
80%+884.1%87.5%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 225 of 274 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58640.5793
Avg chance given to result41.1%42.4%
Favourite won51.1%53.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 225 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 274 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.