Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heerenveen
8th · 44 pts · 30 played
WWDWL
First leg0–2
2–1Full time
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 36 pts · 30 played
LWLLD
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fortuna Sittard. Heerenveen had 13.1 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 13.3 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days13.1 · 13.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heerenveen58%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Heerenveen54%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Heerenveen56%
Draw22%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Heerenveen49%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard28%
Heerenveen57%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsEdwin Van de Graaf
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 23
Team strength
HeerenveenFortuna Sittard
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
36
AttackIn forecast
19
40
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenFortuna Sittard
1.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
87%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.47
ShotsContext
12.53
5.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
37%
On target shareContext
35%
9.59
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.04
12.53
Shots allowedContext
14.23
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.53
3.25
BlocksContext
3.86
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.97
67%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
357
345
Accurate passesContext
273
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.83
FoulsContext
12.23
9.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.37
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.90
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
43%
On target shareContext
36%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
73%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
17.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.56
BlocksContext
3.20
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
73%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
405
PassesContext
347
323
Accurate passesContext
262
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.80
FoulsContext
10.20
7.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 173 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
28J. Hubner
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
18D. Limnios
23P. Brittijn
6S. van Ottele
8J. Dahlhaus
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.73points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-3
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 1.53
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-9
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AW 4–3 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Telstar | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Groningen | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| NAC Breda | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 44 of 87 · 1.52 per game | 33 of 87 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Heerenveen wins2 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.00
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 8 Nov 2025Fortuna Sittard2–0Heerenveen
- 1 Feb 2025Heerenveen2–2Fortuna Sittard
- 2 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard3–0Heerenveen
- 3 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard3–3Heerenveen
- 25 Nov 2023Heerenveen3–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.77 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.30 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 67% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 77% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 13% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 6.64 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 11.35 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 79% 22/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 16/29 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.87 | 3.43 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 10/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 5/30 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.11 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Edwin Van de Graaf Netherlands · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.16
Red cards0.39league 0.16
Cards 5+39%league 26%
Fouls20.6league 21.2
Penalties0.30league 0.23
Home wins39%league 45%
Heerenveen5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L10 May 25A · Waalwijk1–32
- D15 Mar 25H · Heracles1–10
- D29 Nov 24H · Waalwijk1–10
- L19 Jan 24A · Excelsior0–31
- W11 Nov 23A · Vitesse3–11
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L9 Nov 24A · PEC Zwolle1–32
- W28 Jan 24A · FC Volendam1–01
- L15 Dec 23A · NEC Nijmegen1–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen30 games · scored 53 · conceded 50
2
6
0-15
7
11
16-30
14
6
31-45
10
9
46-60
9
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
Fortuna Sittard30 games · scored 44 · conceded 55
9
11
0-15
4
10
16-30
10
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
12
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
