Eredivisie Gameweek 34 Sun, May 23 · 13:30 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel171 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Heerenveen—%
Draw—%
PSV Eindhoven—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heerenveen)

Forecast from 8 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Heerenveen and PSV Eindhoven. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

HeerenveenPSV Eindhoven
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
31 Current StrengthIn forecast 71
36 AttackIn forecast 60
40 DefenceIn forecast 64
39 Form indexContext 32
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

HeerenveenPSV Eindhoven
1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 2.43
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.57
67% Scored inContext 100%
44% Clean sheetsContext 11%
15.11 ShotsContext 19.44
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.11
40% On target shareContext 37%
9.56 Shots in the boxContext 13.44
66% Box shareContext 71%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.56 Shots allowedContext 10.89
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.44 BlocksContext 3.29
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
73% Save rateContext 67%
53% PossessionIn forecast 61%
493 PassesContext 573
421 Accurate passesContext 508
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.01
8.67 FoulsContext 9.78
10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.56
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.27
1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
70% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.90 ShotsContext 17.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
40% On target shareContext 38%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
66% Box shareContext 67%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.22
15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.70
4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
4.70 BlocksContext 3.56
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
69% Save rateContext 71%
54% PossessionIn forecast 58%
498 PassesContext 526
425 Accurate passesContext 464
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.95
8.40 FoulsContext 10.50
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km216 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel171 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 May7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways216 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PSV Eindhoven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.80
Conceded
1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentHeerenveenPSV Eindhoven
Excelsior W 4–0 H W 2–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam W 4–0 A W 4–1 H
Ajax D 2–2 A W 3–1 A
Twente W 1–0 H L 2–3 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins0 draws5 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.83 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 50%
  • 9 Oct 2026PSV Eindhoven2–0Heerenveen
  • 21 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven3–1Heerenveen
  • 6 Dec 2025Heerenveen0–2PSV Eindhoven
  • 8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven2–1Heerenveen
  • 14 Dec 2024Heerenveen1–0PSV Eindhoven
  • 7 Dec 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

HeerenveenPSV EindhovenForecast
Scored per game 1.673.00
Conceded per game 1.221.33
Match goals 2.894.33
Over 1.5 78%100%
Over 2.5 56%89%
Over 3.5 56%67%
Both teams scored 33%89%
Clean sheets 44%11%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games99
HeerenveenPSV EindhovenForecast
Scored per game 1.502.60
Conceded per game 1.101.20
Match goals 2.603.80
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 30%80%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

HeerenveenPSV EindhovenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.115.29
Corners conceded4.893.86
Match total10.009.1510.39
Over 8.567% 6/957% 4/7
Over 9.544% 4/957% 4/7
Over 10.533% 3/943% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.001.67
Opponent cards1.332.00
Match total2.333.672.77
Over 3.511% 1/933% 3/9
Over 4.50% 0/933% 3/9
HeerenveenPSV EindhovenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.205.44
Corners conceded5.203.89
Match total10.409.3310.39
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.001.90
Opponent cards1.202.40
Match total2.204.302.77
Over 3.510% 1/1040% 4/10
Over 4.50% 0/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
PSV Eindhoven9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
6 4 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
PEC Zwolle Twente May 2313:30 Willem II GO Ahead Eagles May 2313:30 ADO Den Haag AZ Alkmaar May 2313:30 Feyenoord Groningen May 2313:30 Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven May 2313:30 NEC Nijmegen Utrecht May 2313:30 Cambuur Ajax May 2313:30 Sparta Rotterdam Fortuna Sittard May 2313:30 Telstar Excelsior May 2313:30