Eredivisie Gameweek 33 Sun, May 16 · 13:30 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
GO Ahead Eagles 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel80 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
GO Ahead Eagles—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Deventer)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for GO Ahead Eagles and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
24 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
29 AttackIn forecast 36
17 DefenceIn forecast 40
14 Form indexContext 39
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—
Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveen
2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22
1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
100% Scored inContext 67%
0% Clean sheetsContext 44%
15.78 ShotsContext 15.11
6.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
39% On target shareContext 40%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.56
66% Box shareContext 66%
14% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.20
16.89 Shots allowedContext 14.56
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.50 BlocksContext 4.44
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
57% Save rateContext 73%
56% PossessionIn forecast 53%
486 PassesContext 493
402 Accurate passesContext 421
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.92
7.11 FoulsContext 8.67
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78
0.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
100% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.50 ShotsContext 14.90
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
39% On target shareContext 40%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
66% Box shareContext 66%
15% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.20
18.80 Shots allowedContext 15.20
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
6.44 BlocksContext 4.70
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
62% Save rateContext 69%
55% PossessionIn forecast 54%
467 PassesContext 498
385 Accurate passesContext 425
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.88
7.20 FoulsContext 8.40
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–41.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Sparta Rotterdam3–31.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.1 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Groningen1–11.6 xPts
  • D8 SepA · Utrecht3–31.2 xPts
Heerenveen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km56 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
GO Ahead Eagles Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km80 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways282 km56 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs PEC Zwolle (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James 4J. Kramer 25G. van Zwam 2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray 10S. Tengstedt 16V. Edvardsen
9S. Sigurðarson
Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
GO Ahead Eagles Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Heerenveen · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentGO Ahead EaglesHeerenveen
PEC Zwolle L 1–4 A L 0–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam D 3–3 H W 4–0 A
AZ Alkmaar L 2–5 A L 2–3 H
Willem II W 4–1 H D 2–2 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws2 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%
  • 11 Feb 2026GO Ahead Eagles1–3Heerenveen
  • 30 Aug 2025Heerenveen2–2GO Ahead Eagles
  • 14 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Heerenveen
  • 10 Nov 2024Heerenveen1–0GO Ahead Eagles
  • 17 Feb 2024Heerenveen0–2GO Ahead Eagles
  • 2 Sep 2023GO Ahead Eagles3–2Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 2.221.67
Conceded per game 2.331.22
Match goals 4.562.89
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 78%56%
Over 3.5 78%56%
Both teams scored 100%33%
Clean sheets 0%44%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games99
GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 2.101.50
Conceded per game 2.301.10
Match goals 4.402.60
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 100%30%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.335.11
Corners conceded4.784.89
Match total11.1110.0010.39
Over 8.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 9.578% 7/944% 4/9
Over 10.567% 6/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards0.781.00
Opponent cards0.891.33
Match total1.672.332.77
Over 3.50% 0/911% 1/9
Over 4.50% 0/90% 0/9
GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.105.20
Corners conceded5.605.20
Match total11.7010.4010.39
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards0.901.00
Opponent cards0.901.20
Match total1.802.202.77
Over 3.50% 0/1010% 1/10
Over 4.50% 0/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
5 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax Sparta Rotterdam May 1613:30 Excelsior ADO Den Haag May 1613:30 PSV Eindhoven NEC Nijmegen May 1613:30 AZ Alkmaar PEC Zwolle May 1613:30 Groningen Cambuur May 1613:30 Fortuna Sittard Willem II May 1613:30 Utrecht Telstar May 1613:30 GO Ahead Eagles Heerenveen May 1613:30 Twente Feyenoord May 1613:30