Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 16). Heracles had 14.2 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 13 and had to travel 36 km.
Away travel36 kmRest days14.2 · 13Matches / 14d0 · 1
Heracles32%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Heracles32%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Heracles32%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles42%
Heracles26%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Heracles32%
Draw28%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 41
Team strength
Heracles
GO Ahead Eagles
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
7
AttackIn forecast
29
10
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesGO Ahead Eagles
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
2.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
58%
Scored inContext
83%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.83
ShotsContext
11.08
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
34%
On target shareContext
44%
6.58
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
59%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.89
17.92
Shots allowedContext
18.00
7.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.83
BlocksContext
7.40
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
59%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
342
PassesContext
427
264
Accurate passesContext
353
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.92
FoulsContext
8.33
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
8.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
41%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
60%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
17.20
Shots allowedContext
17.20
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
5.50
BlocksContext
6.25
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
60%
Save rateContext
81%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
359
PassesContext
423
279
Accurate passesContext
352
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.80
FoulsContext
9.00
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel36 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 36 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
73W. Ould-Chikh
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
19L. Kulenović
9J. Hornkamp
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
6C. Twigt
17M. Suray
24K. Goudmijn
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.08 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 3.00
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 8–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–7 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 24 · 1.13 per game | 14 of 24 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Heracles wins0 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game1.67 – 3.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 8 Feb 2025Heracles4–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 6 Oct 2024GO Ahead Eagles4–1Heracles
- 7 Oct 2023GO Ahead Eagles4–0Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.17 | 3.08 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 92% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Heracles | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.60 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 11.34 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 9/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.42 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 3/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Heracles | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 10.10 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 3.32
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+29%league 32%
Fouls19.7league 22.0
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins49%league 49%
Heracles5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W9 May 25A · Willem II2–11
- W30 Mar 25H · Twente2–15
- L6 Oct 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–42
- L17 Dec 23H · Feyenoord0–43
- L12 Aug 23A · Ajax1–45
GO Ahead Eagles5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Sep 25A · PEC Zwolle2–02
- D27 Apr 25A · Almere City FC0–01
- L1 Dec 24A · Twente2–32
- W6 Oct 24H · Heracles4–11
- W11 Nov 23A · Waalwijk1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles12 games · scored 17 · conceded 33
2
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
9
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles11 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
1
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
