Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
PEC Zwolle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 13). Heracles had 7.7 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7.7 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Heracles35%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle38%
Heracles35%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle38%
Heracles35%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle38%
Heracles28%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle46%
Heracles35%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle38%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 22
Team strength
Heracles
PEC Zwolle
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
7
AttackIn forecast
17
10
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesPEC Zwolle
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
8.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
29%
On target shareContext
30%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
55%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.11
19.70
Shots allowedContext
16.30
7.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
6.40
BlocksContext
3.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
58%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
332
PassesContext
361
256
Accurate passesContext
286
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.50
FoulsContext
10.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
8.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
29%
On target shareContext
30%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
55%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.11
19.70
Shots allowedContext
16.30
7.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
6.40
BlocksContext
3.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
58%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
332
PassesContext
361
256
Accurate passesContext
286
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.50
FoulsContext
10.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km218 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 218 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
73W. Ould-Chikh
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
19L. Kulenović
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
22K. de Rooij
35Jamiro Monteiro
34N. Fichtinger
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
25T. Oosting
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 3.25
PEC Zwolle · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 21 · 0.00 per game | 6 of 21 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Heracles wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 2 Mar 2025Heracles4–2PEC Zwolle
- 1 Sep 2024PEC Zwolle3–0Heracles
- 1 Oct 2023Heracles2–1PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Heracles | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 7.78 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Heracles | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 7.78 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.35
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+36%league 33%
Fouls22.1league 22.2
Penalties0.23league 0.26
Home wins45%league 48%
Heracles4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Apr 25A · Groningen1–45
- W19 Jan 25A · Almere City FC2–01
- L16 Feb 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–24
- D23 Sep 23A · FC Volendam2–21
PEC Zwolle4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Feb 25H · Heerenveen1–10
- W30 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–03
- L20 Sep 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–22
- L12 Nov 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles10 games · scored 7 · conceded 30
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
9
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 7 · conceded 30
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
9
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
