Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). Heracles had 7 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 8 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Heracles35%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam38%
Heracles34%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam38%
Heracles34%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam38%
Heracles28%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam45%
Heracles35%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam38%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 72
Team strength
Heracles
Sparta Rotterdam
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
7
AttackIn forecast
32
10
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesSparta Rotterdam
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
2.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.67
ShotsContext
11.50
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
30%
On target shareContext
36%
5.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
58%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
21.50
Shots allowedContext
20.33
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.83
8.17
BlocksContext
5.17
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
56%
Save rateContext
64%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
318
PassesContext
344
243
Accurate passesContext
267
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.17
FoulsContext
6.50
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
2.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
11.00
4.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
36%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
58%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.57
19.60
Shots allowedContext
20.40
7.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.30
6.70
BlocksContext
5.80
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.22
58%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
326
PassesContext
360
254
Accurate passesContext
283
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.80
FoulsContext
7.60
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km310 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel157 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 310 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
21Y. Borges Sanches
32S. Scheperman
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
17T. van Gilst
9J. Hornkamp
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6P. Clement
10J. Toornstra
11S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
7M. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Heracles wins2 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 11 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 11 Aug 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–0Heracles
- 2 Dec 2023Heracles0–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 7.83 | |
| Match total | 11.17 | 10.33 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.00 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.75 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.30 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.47
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 22.4
Penalties0.29league 0.21
Home wins46%league 48%
Heracles4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Apr 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- D11 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–13
- L1 Sep 24A · PEC Zwolle0–32
- L10 Dec 23A · Vitesse0–21
Sparta Rotterdam8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L31 Aug 25H · Feyenoord0–42
- L18 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- D7 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–12
- L8 Feb 25A · Feyenoord0–30
- D11 Jan 25A · Heracles1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles6 games · scored 3 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam6 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 29
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
8
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
