Premier League Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 27 · 15:00 The MKM Stadium, Hull
Hull City 9th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel129 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Hull City—%
Draw—%
Manchester City—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Hull)

Forecast from 12 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Hull City and Manchester City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Hull CityManchester City
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
37 Current StrengthIn forecast 91
37 AttackIn forecast 92
50 DefenceIn forecast 82
36 Form indexContext 93
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hull City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hull CityManchester City
1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.71
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
71% Scored inContext 100%
43% Clean sheetsContext 43%
10.71 ShotsContext 14.57
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29
32% On target shareContext 36%
5.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.57
45% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 19%
1.40 OffsidesContext 2.17
14.57 Shots allowedContext 11.43
4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
4.29 BlocksContext 3.00
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
77% Save rateContext 72%
32% PossessionIn forecast 64%
275 PassesContext 635
197 Accurate passesContext 567
72% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.23
10.86 FoulsContext 10.71
7.57 Fouls sufferedContext 14.57
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.14 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
70% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.30 ShotsContext 16.50
4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
37% On target shareContext 36%
5.88 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
50% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 15%
1.57 OffsidesContext 1.89
13.80 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
4.10 BlocksContext 2.50
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
77% Save rateContext 68%
33% PossessionIn forecast 62%
267 PassesContext 606
182 Accurate passesContext 541
68% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.10
10.10 FoulsContext 11.00
8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hull City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km357 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fulham0–10.8 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Everton2–21.0 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Newcastle1–20.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Chelsea2–20.6 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Aston Villa0–00.9 xPts
Manchester City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel129 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hull City Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Feb7Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km129 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways357 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one4.24.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hull City Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Fulham (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy 22L. Herrington 15J. Egan 6S. Ajayi 2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas 27R. Slater 25M. Crooks 10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hull City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hull City · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67
Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentHull CityManchester City
Coventry W 1–0 A W 1–0 H
Manchester United W 2–0 H W 1–0 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Hull CityManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.142.71
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.143.71
Over 1.5 57%71%
Over 2.5 43%71%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 43%57%
Clean sheets 43%43%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games77
Hull CityManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.142.40
Conceded per game 1.001.30
Match goals 2.143.70
Over 1.5 57%80%
Over 2.5 43%70%
Over 3.5 29%40%
Both teams scored 43%60%
Clean sheets 43%40%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hull CityManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won3.715.57
Corners conceded6.714.14
Match total10.429.719.49
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.557% 4/757% 4/7
Over 10.557% 4/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards3.001.43
Opponent cards1.001.86
Match total4.003.294.17
Over 3.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 4.557% 4/714% 1/7
Hull CityManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won3.896.40
Corners conceded6.443.70
Match total10.3310.109.49
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.556% 5/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.701.50
Opponent cards1.101.50
Match total3.803.004.17
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.550% 5/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
2 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Arsenal Feb 2715:00 Newcastle Brentford Feb 2715:00 Fulham Leeds Feb 2715:00 Everton Nottingham Forest Feb 2715:00 Tottenham Liverpool Feb 2715:00 Crystal Palace Sunderland Feb 2715:00 Ipswich Brighton Feb 2715:00 Hull City Manchester City Feb 2715:00 Aston Villa Chelsea Feb 2715:00 Coventry Bournemouth Feb 2715:00