Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel132 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Everton—%
Draw—%
Nottingham Forest—%
Weather (Liverpool)
Forecast from 12 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Everton and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nottingham Forest
3
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Team strength
EvertonNottingham Forest
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
61
AttackIn forecast
68
66
DefenceIn forecast
74
50
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonNottingham Forest
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.85
71%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.43
ShotsContext
17.14
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
35%
On target shareContext
21%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
68%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.71
Shots allowedContext
10.57
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
433
PassesContext
370
361
Accurate passesContext
292
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.79
7.43
FoulsContext
14.14
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.66
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
16.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
25%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
70%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.40
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
5.44
BlocksContext
4.40
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
414
PassesContext
388
342
Accurate passesContext
309
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.70
FoulsContext
13.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
DDWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Nottingham Forest
DWLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel132 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Feb | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Nottingham Forest
Last XI · not confirmed
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
23Jair
3N. Williams
21X. Schlager
24J. McAtee
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nottingham Forest
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Everton wins2 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.63
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets63% · 13%
- 30 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest0–2Everton
- 6 Dec 2025Everton3–0Nottingham Forest
- 12 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
- 29 Dec 2024Everton0–2Nottingham Forest
- 21 Apr 2024Everton2–0Nottingham Forest
- 2 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Everton | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 9.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Everton | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures Premier League
View all fixtures →
Manchester United
Arsenal
Feb 2715:00
Newcastle
Brentford
Feb 2715:00
Fulham
Leeds
Feb 2715:00
Everton
Nottingham Forest
Feb 2715:00
Tottenham
Liverpool
Feb 2715:00
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Feb 2715:00
Ipswich
Brighton
Feb 2715:00
Hull City
Manchester City
Feb 2715:00
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Feb 2715:00
Coventry
Bournemouth
Feb 2715:00