Hull City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hull City12.5%fair odds 8.01
Draw19.3%fair odds 5.17
Manchester United68.2%fair odds 1.47
Expected goals0.85 – 2.23total 3.09
Likeliest score0–211.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hull City ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hull City goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.4%8.79
- 0–19.7%10.28
- 1–29.7%10.29
- 1–19.2%10.91
- 0–38.5%11.81
- 1–37.2%13.83
- 0–05.0%19.89
- 0–44.7%21.16
- 2–24.2%24.09
- 1–44.0%24.78
Winning margin
0.9%
Hull City by 3+
fair 108.42
3.0%
Hull City by 2
fair 33.20
8.5%
Hull City by 1
fair 11.70
19.3%
Draw
fair 5.17
23.1%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.33
20.6%
Manchester United by 2
fair 4.86
24.5%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 4.08
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Hull City goals
43%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
Manchester United goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City win | 12.5% | 12.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 19.3% | 19.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Manchester United win | 68.2% | 68.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 60.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.7% | 52.6% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Hull City | 0.85 | 0.87 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 2.23 | 2.26 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hull City win12.5%8.01
- Draw19.3%5.17
- Manchester United win68.2%1.47
- Double chance Hull City or draw31.8%3.14
- Double chance Hull City or Manchester United80.7%1.24
- Double chance Manchester United or draw87.5%1.14
- Draw no bet Hull City15.5%6.46
- Draw no bet Manchester United84.5%1.18
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.6%1.68
- Over 3.537.2%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.01
- Under 1.518.2%5.50
- Under 2.540.4%2.47
- Under 3.562.8%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes51.7%1.93
- No48.3%2.07
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Hull City win and yes6.8%14.75
- Draw and yes14.3%6.99
- Manchester United win and yes30.6%3.26
Team goals
- Hull City over 0.557.4%1.74
- Hull City over 1.521.1%4.74
- Hull City over 2.55.6%18.01
- Manchester United over 0.589.3%1.12
- Manchester United over 1.565.3%1.53
- Manchester United over 2.538.6%2.59
- Hull City clean sheet10.7%9.32
- Manchester United clean sheet42.6%2.35
- Hull City win to nil5.7%17.54
- Manchester United win to nil37.5%2.66
Handicap
- Hull City −1.53.9%25.42
- Hull City −2.50.9%108.42
- Manchester United +1.596.1%1.04
- Manchester United +2.599.1%1.01
- Manchester United −1.545.1%2.22
- Hull City +1.554.9%1.82
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result79.6%
1X2 Brier0.064
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right100.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Arsenal 3–0 Coventry80·13·7
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.