Hull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were clear favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Hull City had ? days of rest, Manchester United 89.9 and had to travel 129 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel129 kmRest days? · 89.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Hull City13%
Draw18%
Manchester United69%
Hull City14%
Draw20%
Manchester United66%
Hull City13%
Draw19%
Manchester United68%
Hull City9%
Draw15%
Manchester United75%
Hull City13%
Draw18%
Manchester United69%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hull)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 58%
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 122
Team strength
Hull City
Manchester United
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
37
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
37
AttackIn forecast
72
50
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hull CityManchester United
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
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Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
61%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
4.50
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
325
PassesContext
443
229
Accurate passesContext
367
70%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.50
FoulsContext
10.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hull City
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest89.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel129 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hull City |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 89.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 129 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hull City
Confirmed XI
19K. Tzolakis(G)
3R. Giles
32N. Mendy
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
21E. Stroud
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
26A. Heaven
5J. Maguire
3N. Mazraoui
17Andrey Santos
18Y. Tielemans
13P. Dorgu
8Bruno Fernandes
19B. Mbeumo
10Matheus Cunha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hull City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hull City-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Hull City · Home
No home games yet this season.
Manchester United · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hull City | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 51% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Hull City | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% | |
| Failed to score | — | 10% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hull City | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Hull City | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 11.22 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 2.00
Red cards0.11league 0.00
Cards 5+43%league 0%
Fouls22.3league 23.0
Penalties0.26league 0.00
Home wins43%league 100%
Hull CityNo previous matches with this referee.
Manchester United6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W3 May 26H · Liverpool3–22
- W23 Feb 26A · Everton1–03
- D1 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–21
- W26 Feb 25H · Ipswich3–25
- L7 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hull CityManchester UnitedHull City10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
