Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Inter had 5 days of rest, Cagliari 6.2 and had to travel 693 km.
Away travel693 kmRest days5 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter72%
Draw19%
Cagliari9%
Inter81%
Draw13%
Cagliari6%
Inter73%
Draw18%
Cagliari9%
Inter65%
Draw22%
Cagliari13%
Inter73%
Draw18%
Cagliari9%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 55
Team strength
Inter
Cagliari
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
91
AttackIn forecast
31
73
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterCagliari
2.34
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
94%
Scored inContext
66%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
17.25
ShotsContext
9.88
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
35%
On target shareContext
33%
12.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.23
72%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.22
8.81
Shots allowedContext
12.59
3.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
2.81
BlocksContext
3.90
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.59
75%
Save rateContext
73%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
532
PassesContext
384
465
Accurate passesContext
314
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.22
FoulsContext
13.91
11.03
Fouls sufferedContext
14.56
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.50
ShotsContext
9.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
29%
12.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
76%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.43
9.90
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.14
BlocksContext
3.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
67%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
549
PassesContext
418
480
Accurate passesContext
346
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.20
FoulsContext
11.70
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel693 km1,241 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 693 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 78 km | 1,241 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 9.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
13Josep Martínez(G)
30Carlos Augusto
6S. de Vrij
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
9M. Thuram
94F. Esposito
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
25I. Sulemana
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
29G. Borrelli
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Cagliari+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-2
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.94
Cagliari · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Como | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Juventus | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Pisa | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 72 of 93 · 2.32 per game | 33 of 93 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Inter wins1 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.71 – 0.57
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025Cagliari0–2Inter
- 12 Apr 2025Inter3–1Cagliari
- 28 Dec 2024Cagliari0–3Inter
- 14 Apr 2024Inter2–2Cagliari
- 28 Aug 2023Cagliari0–2Inter
- 15 May 2022Cagliari1–3Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.34 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.41 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Inter | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.59 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 8.27 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 18/32 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 20% 6/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 13/32 | 13% 4/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 4.15 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% 11/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 7/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Inter | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.30 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.74
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 36%
Fouls24.9league 24.9
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins38%league 40%
Inter8 with this referee
Record6-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L31 Aug 25H · Udinese1–21
- W30 Oct 24A · Empoli3–01
- W30 Aug 24H · Atalanta4–00
- L4 May 24A · Sassuolo0–11
- W21 Oct 23A · Torino3–02
Cagliari5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Oct 25H · Bologna0–21
- D15 Feb 25A · Atalanta0–01
- D26 Nov 23H · Monza1–11
- L12 Dec 21A · Inter0–42
- W17 Oct 21H · Sampdoria3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter32 games · scored 75 · conceded 29
11
2
0-15
9
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
12
2
46-60
14
3
61-75
17
10
76-90
Cagliari32 games · scored 33 · conceded 44
8
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
7
46-60
9
7
61-75
8
12
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
