Inter
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Inter71.9%fair odds 1.39
Draw18.8%fair odds 5.33
Cagliari9.4%fair odds 10.69
Expected goals2.17 – 0.65total 2.82
Likeliest score2–014.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Inter ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Inter goals, columns Cagliari goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%7.14
- 1–012.5%8.03
- 3–010.1%9.88
- 2–19.1%10.95
- 1–18.9%11.27
- 3–16.6%15.14
- 0–06.4%15.63
- 4–05.5%18.22
- 4–13.6%27.92
- 0–13.4%29.09
Winning margin
26.0%
Inter by 3+
fair 3.85
21.9%
Inter by 2
fair 4.57
24.0%
Inter by 1
fair 4.16
18.8%
Draw
fair 5.33
6.9%
Cagliari by 1
fair 14.46
2.0%
Cagliari by 2
fair 50.45
0.5%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 219.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Inter goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Cagliari goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 71.9% | 72.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 18.8% | 17.8% | +1.0 pp |
| Cagliari win | 9.4% | 9.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 57.9% | -4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 42.9% | 46.1% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Inter | 2.17 | 2.30 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 0.65 | 0.71 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Inter win71.9%1.39
- Draw18.8%5.33
- Cagliari win9.4%10.69
- Double chance Inter or draw90.6%1.10
- Double chance Inter or Cagliari81.2%1.23
- Double chance Cagliari or draw28.1%3.56
- Draw no bet Inter88.5%1.13
- Draw no bet Cagliari11.5%8.68
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.6%1.87
- Over 3.531.3%3.20
- Over 4.515.6%6.42
- Under 1.522.3%4.49
- Under 2.546.4%2.15
- Under 3.568.7%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes42.9%2.33
- No57.1%1.75
- Yes and over 2.534.0%2.94
- Inter win and yes26.2%3.81
- Draw and yes12.4%8.09
- Cagliari win and yes4.3%23.13
Team goals
- Inter over 0.588.6%1.13
- Inter over 1.563.8%1.57
- Inter over 2.536.9%2.71
- Cagliari over 0.547.9%2.09
- Cagliari over 1.514.0%7.17
- Cagliari over 2.52.9%34.92
- Inter clean sheet52.1%1.92
- Cagliari clean sheet11.4%8.75
- Inter win to nil45.7%2.19
- Cagliari win to nil5.0%19.87
Handicap
- Inter −1.547.9%2.09
- Inter −2.526.0%3.85
- Cagliari +1.552.1%1.92
- Cagliari +2.574.0%1.35
- Cagliari −1.52.4%41.02
- Inter +1.597.6%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored321
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right51.1%
BTTS called right51.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 37.8% | 35.4% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 77 | 54.6% | 48.1% |
| 60–70% | 60 | 64.8% | 68.3% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 73.4% | 65.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 272 of 321 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5909 | 0.5766 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.8% | 54.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 272 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 321 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.