Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Inter had 7.1 days of rest, Genoa 6.3 and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter75%
Draw16%
Genoa9%
Inter77%
Draw15%
Genoa8%
Inter76%
Draw16%
Genoa8%
Inter68%
Draw20%
Genoa13%
Inter75%
Draw16%
Genoa9%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 67
Team strength
Inter
Genoa
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
91
AttackIn forecast
23
73
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterGenoa
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
0.81
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
96%
Scored inContext
69%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
18.35
ShotsContext
11.31
6.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
35%
12.85
Shots in the boxContext
7.28
71%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.95
8.12
Shots allowedContext
13.19
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
2.86
BlocksContext
4.78
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
77%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
535
PassesContext
372
467
Accurate passesContext
300
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.38
FoulsContext
13.31
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
14.58
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
19.90
ShotsContext
12.20
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
34%
15.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
79%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.56
8.10
Shots allowedContext
15.10
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.75
BlocksContext
5.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
63%
Save rateContext
74%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
562
PassesContext
407
494
Accurate passesContext
338
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.10
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,851 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Genoa
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel119 km235 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.3Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,851 km | 235 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
30Carlos Augusto
6S. de Vrij
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
9M. Thuram
14A. Bonny
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
77M. Ellertsson
9Vítinha
8T. Baldanzi
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Genoa+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-2
- Scored
- 2.77
- Conceded
- 0.92
Genoa · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Juventus | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Pisa | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Como | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 61 of 75 · 2.44 per game | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Inter wins3 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 14 Dec 2025Genoa1–2Inter
- 22 Feb 2025Inter1–0Genoa
- 17 Aug 2024Genoa2–2Inter
- 4 Mar 2024Inter2–1Genoa
- 29 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Inter
- 25 Feb 2022Genoa0–0Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.81 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.65 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 62% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 62% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Inter | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.62 | 3.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.69 | 5.59 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 8.95 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 18% 4/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.27 | 4.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% 7/26 | 81% 21/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 5/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Inter | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.70 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.10 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.78
Red cards0.31league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 37%
Fouls24.2league 25.3
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins36%league 38%
Inter8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 25H · AS Roma0–11
- W6 Jan 24H · Verona2–10
- W28 Aug 23A · Cagliari2–01
- W3 Jun 23A · Torino1–02
- D7 Apr 23A · Salernitana1–12
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W29 Nov 25H · Verona2–11
- D7 Mar 25A · Cagliari1–12
- D16 Sep 23H · Napoli2–23
- L15 May 22A · Napoli0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter26 games · scored 62 · conceded 21
9
2
0-15
8
4
16-30
9
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
11
2
61-75
17
7
76-90
Genoa26 games · scored 32 · conceded 37
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
9
6
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
10
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
