Ipswich vs Sunderland – 22 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 15:00 Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk

Ipswich

2–1Full time

Sunderland

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Sunderland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sunderland. Ipswich had ? days of rest, Sunderland 90 and had to travel 358 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel358 kmRest days? · 90Matches / 14d0 · 0

Ipswich36%

Draw25%

Sunderland39%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.41

Ipswich37%

Draw26%

Sunderland37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Ipswich37%

Draw26%

Sunderland38%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.39

Ipswich29%

Draw25%

Sunderland46%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.58

Ipswich35%

Draw26%

Sunderland39%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.41

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 47%

RefereeFarai Hallam

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 42

Team strength

Ipswich

Sunderland

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

59 AttackIn forecast 62

50 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ipswich

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ipswich

Sunderland

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.30 ShotsContext 12.40

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 32%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

73% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.60 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.30 BlocksContext 3.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

73% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

419 PassesContext 378

336 Accurate passesContext 301

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.00 FoulsContext 13.00

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ipswich

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sunderland

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel358 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ipswich	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	90Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	358 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ipswich Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

37K. Scherpen(G)

3L. Davis 24J. Greaves 6I. Diop 26D. O'Shea

23S. Lukić 32M. Núñez

38D. Maeda 10J. Enciso 7I. Fatawu

19Emersonn

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 13L. O'Nien 5D. Ballard 12T. Meunier

34G. Xhaka 27N. Sadiki

10N. Angulo 28E. Le Fée 32T. Hume

9B. Brobbey

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ipswich Absences are shown before kick-off

Sunderland Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ipswich-0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sunderland+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Ipswich · Home No home games yet this season.

Sunderland · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Ipswich wins0 draws0 Sunderland wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

13 Jan 2024Ipswich2–1Sunderland
6 Aug 2023Sunderland1–2Ipswich

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ipswich	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ipswich	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.30
Conceded per game	—	1.40
Match goals	—	2.70	2.76
Over 1.5	—	60%
Over 2.5	—	50%	52%
Over 3.5	—	30%
Both teams scored	—	50%	56%
Clean sheets	—	30%
Failed to score	—	30%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ipswich	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ipswich	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.10
Corners conceded	4.50	5.50
Match total	9.90	9.60	8.50
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.80
Opponent cards	2.10	2.40
Match total	4.20	5.20	2.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Farai Hallam 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 2.50

Red cards0.02league 0.00

Cards 5+29%league 0%

Fouls22.4league 21.0

Penalties0.14league 0.00

Home wins31%league 100%

Ipswich3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L14 Apr 26A · Portsmouth0–22
L21 Oct 25H · Charlton0–30
W12 Sep 25H · Sheffield Utd5–00

Sunderland2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L12 Apr 25H · Swansea0–12
L22 Feb 25H · Hull City0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.